Dr. Colgan is a Professor of Public Policy at the Muskie School in Portland. He will talk about the Sea Level Rise and Threats to the Economy of York County Coastal Communities.
He's been thinking over the last 5 weeks about the depressing weather. Does he want a nice day where everyone wants to be outside, or a gloomy one where people are willing to sit? He thanks us for remaining inside.
His presentation may be an overview of existing statistics, and he's going to talk about how our perception of Maine's beaches and communities may change in the next years or decades as climate change impacts become more evident. First, sea levels are rising and will continue to do so. Historically, the sea has already risen by about a foot over the last century (just ask Jim Ortiz!), and will only continue to do so. He will present the optimistic view, and won't even show us the pessimistic view!
Dr. Colgan shows a picture of Massachusetts, before and after a big storm. A spit of beach land was completely changed by the recent storm, which opened up a large alley down the middle. Camp Ellis in Saco, he shows, is the poster child for Maine beach erosion. 2007's Patriot's Day Storm brought down a bunch of docks and a large buoy. Sea level rise is something we have to worry about now, not in the future. Storms like the Patriot's Day Storm are likely to occur more often in the future.
So what are the impacts of these changes on York County's economy? Dr. Colgan assumes that the major effects will be from storms. The impacts of large-scale sea rises may not be completely evident for many years. Storms will cause economic costs in beachside communities to rise, especially in coastal homes. Businesses, too, he says, will be affected.
He's going to use data from the SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model, which looks at hurricane data. While Maine hasn't had a long history of Category 5 storms, the effect of sea level rise is similar. He shows maps of York County communities, and their employment centers (mostly on Route 1 and in Old Orchard Beach). Another map of the SLOSH model shows storm surge damage from a Cat. 5 hurricane. The map shows the land that a storm surge would cover, most of which is along the inlet above Old Orchard Beach (OOB) and other spots further south.
He then checked this storm surge map against coastal employment data to find which businesses were most at risk from hurricane surges. Over 270 employment centers were found to be at risk from storm surge date. Almost 1900 employees will be affected, but that changes seasonally, and could be more than 3000 employees in the summer. This is more than 42 million dollars in wages at risk. OOB is the most threatened, with Kennebunkport following, especially next to the river. Proportionally, Kennebunkport is most at risk.
One of the problems with the SLOSH model is that it doesn't take sea level rise into account. He shows a map showing what mean high water could look like in Wells in 2070. It appears to be a permanent flooding, and the surge could move closer and closer to Route 1. Taking that into account, the businesses along Route 1 could be at risk, which doubles the total number of businesses at risk and brings revised totals to 550 businesses.
As we might expect, most of these businesses are tourism related (food, entertainment, hospitality. etc). If we go beyond the SLOSH model, however, and take Wells into account, schools and clinics (services not typically associated with tourists) are affected.
How much should we worry? York County doesn't have a long tradition of hurricanes. Looking at extra-tropical storms (nor’easters, mostly), though, shows us that the type of storm we typically get in the winter may now become more common in the summer. The mid-June storm that affected Cape Cod (which was illustrated), is an example. What do we do about it? First, recognize that the frequency and severity of coastal storms is increasing. What was once the 100 year storm will now become the 10 year storm. What we once thought were rare events are going to become more common events. Cumulatively, these storms will be a large problem. There is argument about whether hurricanes will increase.
The major threat is that York County will be faced with constant, severe floods and surges. The economy will be threatened by the constant beating. Insurance rates for coastal businesses will rise. The short-term question will be how the insurance companies react to the rising risks to homeowners etc. Already in Florida there is almost no private insurance left for coastal homeowners. Cape Cod is facing similar problems, because that market is regarded as just too risky. It hasn't happened in Maine yet, but the coalmine canary is this insurance market.
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