Peter Slovinsky of the Maine Geological Survey welcomes us on this beautiful Maine day to the 2009 Maine Beaches Conference. He speaks about the beauty of Maine's beaches, and also the challenges that face their future management. Besides the cold winters that make volunteering difficult, Peter speaks of the fiscal hurdles that can hamper effective management of beaches.
Peter starts by recognizing and thanking the volunteers that make this conference, as well as the continued monitoring of Maine's beaches, possible. He asks Maine Beach Profile Monitoring volunteers to stand, and there is a large applause on their behalf. He also thanks Maine Healthy Beaches Program volunteers for their continued service to ensure Maine's water quality, and everyone applause.
He goes on the thank all of the conference's sponsors, which can be found at http://www.maine.gov/doc/nrimc/mgs/explore/marine/beach-conference/beaches-2009.htm
Peter says that conference materials (currently biographies, abstracts; and within the next few weeks PowerPoint presentations, sessions notes) can be viewed at the conference webpage.
James Ortiz, the President of SMCC, is introduced to give a welcome.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Welcome by James Ortiz, President, Southern Maine Community College
James Ortiz says it's been a tough June, mostly because of the weather, but the theme of the conference, he says, is relevant to SMCC. A good portion of the budget at the school, he says, is due to the location of the school. Because of the ocean the school is under a constant state of repair. A few years ago they had to tear down the old pier and build a new one based on the original 1850 pier. However, when the school went to get an Army Corps permit, the school was told that the pier was a foot too low, and that since the ocean had risen a foot, the pier had to be raised. It cost an additional 10,000 dollars! Mr. Ortiz closes by welcoming us to the school.
Opening Remarks by Robert Varney, Senior Vice President, Normandeau Associates, former Regional Administrator of U.S. EPA New England
Mr. Varney says that Angus King told him to tell everyone that in addition to being a 50 year part time resident, he's also been a taxpayer in Maine for that whole time!
He thanks all of the sponsors of the event.
There are major challenges facing Maine's water quality. We have been working hard and accomplishing a lot towards water quality, and points out that it is a remarkable achievement that we've come so far in 40 years. Whenever he travels he is happy that Maine and New England has done such a good job.
Where he worked previously, at EPA, he only was in charge of 18 miles of beaches, and yet he still couldn't get an A+ for water quality. He made sure from that point that he would work harder to improve water quality. Also while at the EPA, Mr. Varney started an important program to help improve water quality monitoring in New England. They didn't stop at monitoring, however. There was just as much emphasis at tracing the problems back to the source, and to never blame the beach problems on the rain. While rain does contribute to the problem, the actual cause of pollution is stormwater and its infrastructure, not the rain. By getting to the roots of the problems, beaches will be cleaner.
This year, beach monitoring has a budget of about 55 thousand dollars. This is a thin amount for the enormous Maine coastline. Accomplishing a large no-discharge area from New York to Casco Bay is one of his big projects, and there has been a lot of progress towards that goal. While some gaps need to be filled in, many areas including all of CT, Boston harbor and many spots in Maine are already no-discharge zones.
The stimulus money, he says, has been a huge boost. About 30 million dollars has been given to ME for wastewater projects. The Clinton Street project in Portland was highlighted in a 100 days report from the Obama Administration. While 30 million is a great start, he says, Maine needs 300 million dollars to meet all the needs.
Stormwater is also a big need. How do we retroactively deal with existing development? The collaborative effort at Long Creek in Portland has been a great indication of how to possibly proceed, and has been touted by the DEP and others for this effort. New development is easy, he says, but existing development is the trouble.
These are troubling times, but as we look to the future we must remember that keeping the quality of Maine's environment is critical to both our happiness and health, but also to our economy. Keep this in mind when you talk to state and local officials. By working together, we can get there.
He thanks all of the sponsors of the event.
There are major challenges facing Maine's water quality. We have been working hard and accomplishing a lot towards water quality, and points out that it is a remarkable achievement that we've come so far in 40 years. Whenever he travels he is happy that Maine and New England has done such a good job.
Where he worked previously, at EPA, he only was in charge of 18 miles of beaches, and yet he still couldn't get an A+ for water quality. He made sure from that point that he would work harder to improve water quality. Also while at the EPA, Mr. Varney started an important program to help improve water quality monitoring in New England. They didn't stop at monitoring, however. There was just as much emphasis at tracing the problems back to the source, and to never blame the beach problems on the rain. While rain does contribute to the problem, the actual cause of pollution is stormwater and its infrastructure, not the rain. By getting to the roots of the problems, beaches will be cleaner.
This year, beach monitoring has a budget of about 55 thousand dollars. This is a thin amount for the enormous Maine coastline. Accomplishing a large no-discharge area from New York to Casco Bay is one of his big projects, and there has been a lot of progress towards that goal. While some gaps need to be filled in, many areas including all of CT, Boston harbor and many spots in Maine are already no-discharge zones.
The stimulus money, he says, has been a huge boost. About 30 million dollars has been given to ME for wastewater projects. The Clinton Street project in Portland was highlighted in a 100 days report from the Obama Administration. While 30 million is a great start, he says, Maine needs 300 million dollars to meet all the needs.
Stormwater is also a big need. How do we retroactively deal with existing development? The collaborative effort at Long Creek in Portland has been a great indication of how to possibly proceed, and has been touted by the DEP and others for this effort. New development is easy, he says, but existing development is the trouble.
These are troubling times, but as we look to the future we must remember that keeping the quality of Maine's environment is critical to both our happiness and health, but also to our economy. Keep this in mind when you talk to state and local officials. By working together, we can get there.
The Economic Impact of Maine’s Beaches by Michael LeVert, Maine State Economist, Maine State Planning Office
Moderated by Christine Feurt of the Wells National Estuarine Research Reserve, "Valuing Maine's Beaches" will feature Michael LeVert of the Maine State Planning Office, Charles Colgan of the Muskie School of Public Policy, and Linwood Pendleton of the Ocean Foundation.
Christine Feurt introduces Michael LeVert, the Maine State Economist at the Planning Office. He's also responsible for forecasting Maine's revenue and has a special interest in non-market values (like sunbathing and quality of life).
Michael LeVert: Mr. Levert starts by asking: How many of us are wearing a tie? It's pretty much just him. He's gonna keep it on, however.
We all know that Maine's beaches have economic value, and it's increasingly important to quantify that value. How much do the beaches help? How much would people pay to ensure that Maine's beaches will continue to be clean? He wishes he could give us a number, but it's not as easy as, say, an industry. Beach values aren't sold in markets, they're sunbathing, happiness, quality of life.
There are, however, some ways to explore the economic impact of Maine's beaches. First, beaches play a large role in Maine's tourist economy - tens of millions of dollars a year. Second, seasonal changes can be monitored. Third, you can look at beachside property values to see how much people are willing to pay to be near Maine's beaches.
Tourism is probably the easiest way to monitor the impact. Studies have shown that 13% of overnight visitors to Maine are here for the beaches. This brings 260 million dollars per year, in terms of meals, hotels, travel costs, gifts. These tourist dollars also help the local economy, as these new dollars encourage local workers to spend more. With this factored in, the total effect to Maine's economy is over 500 million dollars.
Seasonal Variation in economic indicators can help value Maine's beaches. His study looked at York County, where there is almost 3 times as much retail sales in the summer than in other seasons in Maine. He shows a graph that shows that restaurant and hotel sales in York County in the summer months are nearly a quarter of the whole county economy at that time. Also, turnpike traffic spikes in the summer months. York County exits have nearly 90 thousand vehicles per day in August, 30 thousand more than other months. Summer employment is also highest in the summer, at nearly twice the number in the winter. All this is to show that beaches play a huge role in the economy of York County, and, likely, other beach areas.
Maine law requires that tax assessors value property at its ‘fair market value’. For this analysis, they looked at how assessed land values correlate with their proximity to the beach. We excluded the value of any buildings or structures on the property.
In the York County beach towns, Beachfront land makes up 2% of the land area but 14% of the total value. If we look at properties that are within walking distance to a beach, they make up 5% of the land area but over a third of the total value.
He says we need better data about the people visiting Maine and their economic impact. How many people visit? How much do they pay for parking, etc? Instate v out-of-state tourists? Are there new models we can use to differentiate between different beaches? What types of beaches are most valuable?
Christine Feurt introduces Michael LeVert, the Maine State Economist at the Planning Office. He's also responsible for forecasting Maine's revenue and has a special interest in non-market values (like sunbathing and quality of life).
Michael LeVert: Mr. Levert starts by asking: How many of us are wearing a tie? It's pretty much just him. He's gonna keep it on, however.
We all know that Maine's beaches have economic value, and it's increasingly important to quantify that value. How much do the beaches help? How much would people pay to ensure that Maine's beaches will continue to be clean? He wishes he could give us a number, but it's not as easy as, say, an industry. Beach values aren't sold in markets, they're sunbathing, happiness, quality of life.
There are, however, some ways to explore the economic impact of Maine's beaches. First, beaches play a large role in Maine's tourist economy - tens of millions of dollars a year. Second, seasonal changes can be monitored. Third, you can look at beachside property values to see how much people are willing to pay to be near Maine's beaches.
Tourism is probably the easiest way to monitor the impact. Studies have shown that 13% of overnight visitors to Maine are here for the beaches. This brings 260 million dollars per year, in terms of meals, hotels, travel costs, gifts. These tourist dollars also help the local economy, as these new dollars encourage local workers to spend more. With this factored in, the total effect to Maine's economy is over 500 million dollars.
Seasonal Variation in economic indicators can help value Maine's beaches. His study looked at York County, where there is almost 3 times as much retail sales in the summer than in other seasons in Maine. He shows a graph that shows that restaurant and hotel sales in York County in the summer months are nearly a quarter of the whole county economy at that time. Also, turnpike traffic spikes in the summer months. York County exits have nearly 90 thousand vehicles per day in August, 30 thousand more than other months. Summer employment is also highest in the summer, at nearly twice the number in the winter. All this is to show that beaches play a huge role in the economy of York County, and, likely, other beach areas.
Maine law requires that tax assessors value property at its ‘fair market value’. For this analysis, they looked at how assessed land values correlate with their proximity to the beach. We excluded the value of any buildings or structures on the property.
In the York County beach towns, Beachfront land makes up 2% of the land area but 14% of the total value. If we look at properties that are within walking distance to a beach, they make up 5% of the land area but over a third of the total value.
He says we need better data about the people visiting Maine and their economic impact. How many people visit? How much do they pay for parking, etc? Instate v out-of-state tourists? Are there new models we can use to differentiate between different beaches? What types of beaches are most valuable?
The Effects of Climate Change on Economic Activity in Maine: A Case Study of York County Coastal Communities by Charles Colgan, Professor of Public Po
Dr. Colgan is a Professor of Public Policy at the Muskie School in Portland. He will talk about the Sea Level Rise and Threats to the Economy of York County Coastal Communities.
He's been thinking over the last 5 weeks about the depressing weather. Does he want a nice day where everyone wants to be outside, or a gloomy one where people are willing to sit? He thanks us for remaining inside.
His presentation may be an overview of existing statistics, and he's going to talk about how our perception of Maine's beaches and communities may change in the next years or decades as climate change impacts become more evident. First, sea levels are rising and will continue to do so. Historically, the sea has already risen by about a foot over the last century (just ask Jim Ortiz!), and will only continue to do so. He will present the optimistic view, and won't even show us the pessimistic view!
Dr. Colgan shows a picture of Massachusetts, before and after a big storm. A spit of beach land was completely changed by the recent storm, which opened up a large alley down the middle. Camp Ellis in Saco, he shows, is the poster child for Maine beach erosion. 2007's Patriot's Day Storm brought down a bunch of docks and a large buoy. Sea level rise is something we have to worry about now, not in the future. Storms like the Patriot's Day Storm are likely to occur more often in the future.
So what are the impacts of these changes on York County's economy? Dr. Colgan assumes that the major effects will be from storms. The impacts of large-scale sea rises may not be completely evident for many years. Storms will cause economic costs in beachside communities to rise, especially in coastal homes. Businesses, too, he says, will be affected.
He's going to use data from the SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model, which looks at hurricane data. While Maine hasn't had a long history of Category 5 storms, the effect of sea level rise is similar. He shows maps of York County communities, and their employment centers (mostly on Route 1 and in Old Orchard Beach). Another map of the SLOSH model shows storm surge damage from a Cat. 5 hurricane. The map shows the land that a storm surge would cover, most of which is along the inlet above Old Orchard Beach (OOB) and other spots further south.
He then checked this storm surge map against coastal employment data to find which businesses were most at risk from hurricane surges. Over 270 employment centers were found to be at risk from storm surge date. Almost 1900 employees will be affected, but that changes seasonally, and could be more than 3000 employees in the summer. This is more than 42 million dollars in wages at risk. OOB is the most threatened, with Kennebunkport following, especially next to the river. Proportionally, Kennebunkport is most at risk.
One of the problems with the SLOSH model is that it doesn't take sea level rise into account. He shows a map showing what mean high water could look like in Wells in 2070. It appears to be a permanent flooding, and the surge could move closer and closer to Route 1. Taking that into account, the businesses along Route 1 could be at risk, which doubles the total number of businesses at risk and brings revised totals to 550 businesses.
As we might expect, most of these businesses are tourism related (food, entertainment, hospitality. etc). If we go beyond the SLOSH model, however, and take Wells into account, schools and clinics (services not typically associated with tourists) are affected.
How much should we worry? York County doesn't have a long tradition of hurricanes. Looking at extra-tropical storms (nor’easters, mostly), though, shows us that the type of storm we typically get in the winter may now become more common in the summer. The mid-June storm that affected Cape Cod (which was illustrated), is an example. What do we do about it? First, recognize that the frequency and severity of coastal storms is increasing. What was once the 100 year storm will now become the 10 year storm. What we once thought were rare events are going to become more common events. Cumulatively, these storms will be a large problem. There is argument about whether hurricanes will increase.
The major threat is that York County will be faced with constant, severe floods and surges. The economy will be threatened by the constant beating. Insurance rates for coastal businesses will rise. The short-term question will be how the insurance companies react to the rising risks to homeowners etc. Already in Florida there is almost no private insurance left for coastal homeowners. Cape Cod is facing similar problems, because that market is regarded as just too risky. It hasn't happened in Maine yet, but the coalmine canary is this insurance market.
He's been thinking over the last 5 weeks about the depressing weather. Does he want a nice day where everyone wants to be outside, or a gloomy one where people are willing to sit? He thanks us for remaining inside.
His presentation may be an overview of existing statistics, and he's going to talk about how our perception of Maine's beaches and communities may change in the next years or decades as climate change impacts become more evident. First, sea levels are rising and will continue to do so. Historically, the sea has already risen by about a foot over the last century (just ask Jim Ortiz!), and will only continue to do so. He will present the optimistic view, and won't even show us the pessimistic view!
Dr. Colgan shows a picture of Massachusetts, before and after a big storm. A spit of beach land was completely changed by the recent storm, which opened up a large alley down the middle. Camp Ellis in Saco, he shows, is the poster child for Maine beach erosion. 2007's Patriot's Day Storm brought down a bunch of docks and a large buoy. Sea level rise is something we have to worry about now, not in the future. Storms like the Patriot's Day Storm are likely to occur more often in the future.
So what are the impacts of these changes on York County's economy? Dr. Colgan assumes that the major effects will be from storms. The impacts of large-scale sea rises may not be completely evident for many years. Storms will cause economic costs in beachside communities to rise, especially in coastal homes. Businesses, too, he says, will be affected.
He's going to use data from the SLOSH (Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model, which looks at hurricane data. While Maine hasn't had a long history of Category 5 storms, the effect of sea level rise is similar. He shows maps of York County communities, and their employment centers (mostly on Route 1 and in Old Orchard Beach). Another map of the SLOSH model shows storm surge damage from a Cat. 5 hurricane. The map shows the land that a storm surge would cover, most of which is along the inlet above Old Orchard Beach (OOB) and other spots further south.
He then checked this storm surge map against coastal employment data to find which businesses were most at risk from hurricane surges. Over 270 employment centers were found to be at risk from storm surge date. Almost 1900 employees will be affected, but that changes seasonally, and could be more than 3000 employees in the summer. This is more than 42 million dollars in wages at risk. OOB is the most threatened, with Kennebunkport following, especially next to the river. Proportionally, Kennebunkport is most at risk.
One of the problems with the SLOSH model is that it doesn't take sea level rise into account. He shows a map showing what mean high water could look like in Wells in 2070. It appears to be a permanent flooding, and the surge could move closer and closer to Route 1. Taking that into account, the businesses along Route 1 could be at risk, which doubles the total number of businesses at risk and brings revised totals to 550 businesses.
As we might expect, most of these businesses are tourism related (food, entertainment, hospitality. etc). If we go beyond the SLOSH model, however, and take Wells into account, schools and clinics (services not typically associated with tourists) are affected.
How much should we worry? York County doesn't have a long tradition of hurricanes. Looking at extra-tropical storms (nor’easters, mostly), though, shows us that the type of storm we typically get in the winter may now become more common in the summer. The mid-June storm that affected Cape Cod (which was illustrated), is an example. What do we do about it? First, recognize that the frequency and severity of coastal storms is increasing. What was once the 100 year storm will now become the 10 year storm. What we once thought were rare events are going to become more common events. Cumulatively, these storms will be a large problem. There is argument about whether hurricanes will increase.
The major threat is that York County will be faced with constant, severe floods and surges. The economy will be threatened by the constant beating. Insurance rates for coastal businesses will rise. The short-term question will be how the insurance companies react to the rising risks to homeowners etc. Already in Florida there is almost no private insurance left for coastal homeowners. Cape Cod is facing similar problems, because that market is regarded as just too risky. It hasn't happened in Maine yet, but the coalmine canary is this insurance market.
The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Southern California Beaches by Linwood Pendleton, Senior Fellow, The Ocean Foundation
Dr. Pendleton has been studying California's beaches ever since he finished school. To help his study, he moved to Malibu, which had sun, surf and plastic surgery. He also spends time in downeast Maine, and is a proud taxpayer here! He doesn't know a lot about Maine's beaches, though, and will talk about California's beaches.
150 million visits a year to Los Angeles and Orange County public beaches and these beach goers spend 4 billion dollars annually. Also, most of the beaches are accessible at no coast or very low cost. This is where non-market values come into play. How much are people willing to pay above what they already pay for the beach? How much do beach visits help those living near the beach? In CA, he says, it helps to the tune of about 2 billion dollars annually.
Climate change is going to affect California's beaches, and there is a lot of work being done to model these changes. It's tough to do. Separating the change into parts, how will it work? If sea level goes up a meter, how will it affect the beaches? Who will the erosion impact? California doesn't have hurricanes, but big winter storms will combine with higher high tides and this will cause more erosion. How will that work? Also, as sea level rises, how will the sea floor change wave direction and speed? How are these changes going to alter beach-going patterns? Different beaches?
The study area is Los Angeles and Orange Counties. There are three modules in the study: the Beach Sediment Predictions; Beach Choice Models; and, Beach Nourishment Projections.
The way the Beach Choice Model works is by interviewing 1000 households, asking those who had been to the beach in the past year to participate in a yearlong survey of beach going. 900 households agreed to participate. Factors such as width, water quality, and amenities were looked at to see how they influenced visitation.
Starting with Inundation. He used a one-meter sea rise in 100 years along with a current sea level. First, with a meter of sea lever rise, beaches get an average of 10 meters narrower. Small beaches start to disappear, big beaches stay big. What happens to the small beaches, though, is that the beachgoers leave and go to bigger beaches. Thus, the impact is not evenly distributed, and large beaches will get new visitors (and their dollars) at the expense of smaller beaches. Big beaches will get more than 10 million dollars per year, who will lose about the same amount.
The net, though, is a loss of 12 million dollars. In CA, that's almost nothing. Lost Economic Wellbeing, however, is higher, at 60 million dollars because beach opportunities are more limited with less beaches. To be able to replace beach lost due to 1m of sea level rise would cost about 400 million dollars. 4 million dollars per year to keep the beaches might be worth it, he says.
However, these number haven't taken storms into account. Dr. Pendleton is going to run the same model using an El Nino year. Beach width changes wildly with storms: some get smaller and some increase. The effect on beach visitors is that the beaches that get smaller lose visitors and the ones that get bigger gain visitors. Thus, as above, the distribution is uneven. However, the beaches that gain visitors under this model are different than those under the "bath-tub" model shown above. The effects of extremely stormy years are about 9 million dollars of loss, per year, for an overall loss of 37 dollars. The real kicker here is that the cost of replacing sand loss from one big El Nino storm is almost 400 million dollars (the same as due to sea level rise alone), a huge number and no longer an economically-sound investment.
What to do? Size matters, but bigger is not always better. Really large beaches actually improve when they get smaller. Beach size, though, is just one attribute that brings people to the beach. Other factors are water quality; better parking; lifeguards; amenities. What does this mean for Maine? There are fewer beaches here, and they're farther apart. In CA, you can just go down the road, in Maine, visitors have less of a choice and will have to move farther, taking their money with them. Thus, the impact will be greater as Maine beach goers spend their money far away. Maine beaches are not as wide as in CA, and there are typically less opportunities there because many of Maine's beaches are state beaches with limited entertainment.
How to offset beach loss? Increase public access to public and private beaches. Improve water quality. Provide more alternative activities (volleyball, bike paths, retail, wildlife viewing, surfing and wave riding).
150 million visits a year to Los Angeles and Orange County public beaches and these beach goers spend 4 billion dollars annually. Also, most of the beaches are accessible at no coast or very low cost. This is where non-market values come into play. How much are people willing to pay above what they already pay for the beach? How much do beach visits help those living near the beach? In CA, he says, it helps to the tune of about 2 billion dollars annually.
Climate change is going to affect California's beaches, and there is a lot of work being done to model these changes. It's tough to do. Separating the change into parts, how will it work? If sea level goes up a meter, how will it affect the beaches? Who will the erosion impact? California doesn't have hurricanes, but big winter storms will combine with higher high tides and this will cause more erosion. How will that work? Also, as sea level rises, how will the sea floor change wave direction and speed? How are these changes going to alter beach-going patterns? Different beaches?
The study area is Los Angeles and Orange Counties. There are three modules in the study: the Beach Sediment Predictions; Beach Choice Models; and, Beach Nourishment Projections.
The way the Beach Choice Model works is by interviewing 1000 households, asking those who had been to the beach in the past year to participate in a yearlong survey of beach going. 900 households agreed to participate. Factors such as width, water quality, and amenities were looked at to see how they influenced visitation.
Starting with Inundation. He used a one-meter sea rise in 100 years along with a current sea level. First, with a meter of sea lever rise, beaches get an average of 10 meters narrower. Small beaches start to disappear, big beaches stay big. What happens to the small beaches, though, is that the beachgoers leave and go to bigger beaches. Thus, the impact is not evenly distributed, and large beaches will get new visitors (and their dollars) at the expense of smaller beaches. Big beaches will get more than 10 million dollars per year, who will lose about the same amount.
The net, though, is a loss of 12 million dollars. In CA, that's almost nothing. Lost Economic Wellbeing, however, is higher, at 60 million dollars because beach opportunities are more limited with less beaches. To be able to replace beach lost due to 1m of sea level rise would cost about 400 million dollars. 4 million dollars per year to keep the beaches might be worth it, he says.
However, these number haven't taken storms into account. Dr. Pendleton is going to run the same model using an El Nino year. Beach width changes wildly with storms: some get smaller and some increase. The effect on beach visitors is that the beaches that get smaller lose visitors and the ones that get bigger gain visitors. Thus, as above, the distribution is uneven. However, the beaches that gain visitors under this model are different than those under the "bath-tub" model shown above. The effects of extremely stormy years are about 9 million dollars of loss, per year, for an overall loss of 37 dollars. The real kicker here is that the cost of replacing sand loss from one big El Nino storm is almost 400 million dollars (the same as due to sea level rise alone), a huge number and no longer an economically-sound investment.
What to do? Size matters, but bigger is not always better. Really large beaches actually improve when they get smaller. Beach size, though, is just one attribute that brings people to the beach. Other factors are water quality; better parking; lifeguards; amenities. What does this mean for Maine? There are fewer beaches here, and they're farther apart. In CA, you can just go down the road, in Maine, visitors have less of a choice and will have to move farther, taking their money with them. Thus, the impact will be greater as Maine beach goers spend their money far away. Maine beaches are not as wide as in CA, and there are typically less opportunities there because many of Maine's beaches are state beaches with limited entertainment.
How to offset beach loss? Increase public access to public and private beaches. Improve water quality. Provide more alternative activities (volleyball, bike paths, retail, wildlife viewing, surfing and wave riding).
Valuing Maine's Beaches – Plenary I Questions and Discussion with Michael LeVert, Charles Colgan, and Lindwood Pendleton
The three speakers from the Plenary Session take their places in the panel and are ready to field questions.
Q: Peter Slovinsky - asks Dr. Pendleton what does CA spends annually on beach maintenance.
A: Linwood thinks it's around 400 million dollars.
Q: Peter Slovinsky - asks Dr. Pendleton what does CA spends annually on beach maintenance.
A: Pendleton - Around 400 million dollars.
Q: A question about data. I’m on a planning board that is forced to use 25 year old maps and make decisions based on them. Should planning be based on preliminary data (which may be controversial) or on the 25 year old data?
A: Colgan - Yes, it's a problem. You must try to adjust your decisions to the level of data you have. For some decisions (investments, zoning) the question of where the 100 year flood line is may be a legally-binding question. Until FEMA comes up with a legally-binding map, there isn't much planning boards can do except try your best. For other decisions, a careful reading of maps and existing data may be sufficient to develop buffers and margins of safety that permit some adaptation in the future that will not, or should not, result in unfixable actions. Try to do things now in such a way as not to foreclose upon future actions. There is a lot of data up there that will get better.
A: Pendleton - There are a number of reasons why we don't have good data. First, people will assume that environmental problems will be fixed, and environmental problems are overanalyzed, leaving the human impacts relatively unstudied. How big is the economy that is supported by that environment? We should spent money to study people. Second, some say that 'we don't have good data now, why should we start now?' We need to count people, and ask them. How else would you know if beach attendance is altered by weather, climate change or something else? Climate change may be an easy scapegoat, but it's not necessarily the problem all the time. We must gather data that will get a better picture of beach use, from all angles, and the same data should be used for all beaches from Popham to Old Orchard Beach.
A: Pendleton - says he's created an internet survey that can be easy, cheap and useful to help gather this data.
Q: The dollar impact, especially in terms of shorefront property change, ignores Maine's policy that we should retreat from the beach. Second, it seems to be here in Maine that astronomical high tides and severe storm areas are linked. Is there any science related to that?
A: LeVert - Speaking to the impact of beachfront properties on taxpayers, I used my presentation to show the impact of coastal properties on local economies and how much people are willing to pay for coastal life. I can't really speak to Maine's public policy.
A: Pendleton - Coastal landowners who lose land due to erosion will certainly lose. Further, insurance companies will lose, and coastal users will lose. The emotional argument is to feel sorry for the landowner who will lose their home, but who will benefit? As far as astronomical tides go, the frequency of storms happening at high tides will be higher simply because tides will be higher all around.
A: Colgan - There's also an observational effect, because as tides are higher and storms occur, we hear more about them because we are more likely to see dramatic effects, receive official warnings, etc.
Q: How much does Maine spend to nourish beaches?
A: LeVert – I don’t know.
Q: Why not? Does anyone know?
A: Kathleen Leyden, Director, Maine Coastal Program at the State Planning Office says that Maine invests 0 dollars in nourishing Maine's beaches. There are some programs for state parks, but there is no publicly-funded program to help Maine's beaches. It's been brought up in numerous public policy documents, but all the current projects are either private or very local.
Q: I know that for years and years there have been attempts at dredging in Southern Maine, but it's been just hard times. If Maine's beaches are such an important resource, why aren't they maintained and restored on a regular basis? In Wells, we need to restore our beaches.
A: Larry Bliss, state senator for South Portland. How often has the questioner talked to his local senator about the need to do this? Questioner responds – Many, many times. Larry Bliss - Money is a huge problem, he doesn't need to let anyone know. If we've listened to Charles Colgan, we know that money is a problem. That doesn't mean, though, that we can't reallocate resources. We have a citizen legislature that responds incredibly to calls and letters. I live very close to SMCC and know that the beach is important. Other legislators need to hear from their constituents if they want change.
A: Pendleton - In California, dam removal is a big help, and so is sand coming from hills. We sometimes forget that sand has to come from somewhere. That 100-200 million dollars per year spent in California is a small amount.
Q: I’m on the shoreline commission in Saco that deals with beach management. In order for the Army Corps to place a barrier, they need to see that beach nourishment will occur in the future. There are all kinds of problems for the dredged sand getting back to beaches, especially if the sand drifts to other towns. We should understand the problem and work together.
Q: Peter Slovinsky - asks Dr. Pendleton what does CA spends annually on beach maintenance.
A: Linwood thinks it's around 400 million dollars.
Q: Peter Slovinsky - asks Dr. Pendleton what does CA spends annually on beach maintenance.
A: Pendleton - Around 400 million dollars.
Q: A question about data. I’m on a planning board that is forced to use 25 year old maps and make decisions based on them. Should planning be based on preliminary data (which may be controversial) or on the 25 year old data?
A: Colgan - Yes, it's a problem. You must try to adjust your decisions to the level of data you have. For some decisions (investments, zoning) the question of where the 100 year flood line is may be a legally-binding question. Until FEMA comes up with a legally-binding map, there isn't much planning boards can do except try your best. For other decisions, a careful reading of maps and existing data may be sufficient to develop buffers and margins of safety that permit some adaptation in the future that will not, or should not, result in unfixable actions. Try to do things now in such a way as not to foreclose upon future actions. There is a lot of data up there that will get better.
A: Pendleton - There are a number of reasons why we don't have good data. First, people will assume that environmental problems will be fixed, and environmental problems are overanalyzed, leaving the human impacts relatively unstudied. How big is the economy that is supported by that environment? We should spent money to study people. Second, some say that 'we don't have good data now, why should we start now?' We need to count people, and ask them. How else would you know if beach attendance is altered by weather, climate change or something else? Climate change may be an easy scapegoat, but it's not necessarily the problem all the time. We must gather data that will get a better picture of beach use, from all angles, and the same data should be used for all beaches from Popham to Old Orchard Beach.
A: Pendleton - says he's created an internet survey that can be easy, cheap and useful to help gather this data.
Q: The dollar impact, especially in terms of shorefront property change, ignores Maine's policy that we should retreat from the beach. Second, it seems to be here in Maine that astronomical high tides and severe storm areas are linked. Is there any science related to that?
A: LeVert - Speaking to the impact of beachfront properties on taxpayers, I used my presentation to show the impact of coastal properties on local economies and how much people are willing to pay for coastal life. I can't really speak to Maine's public policy.
A: Pendleton - Coastal landowners who lose land due to erosion will certainly lose. Further, insurance companies will lose, and coastal users will lose. The emotional argument is to feel sorry for the landowner who will lose their home, but who will benefit? As far as astronomical tides go, the frequency of storms happening at high tides will be higher simply because tides will be higher all around.
A: Colgan - There's also an observational effect, because as tides are higher and storms occur, we hear more about them because we are more likely to see dramatic effects, receive official warnings, etc.
Q: How much does Maine spend to nourish beaches?
A: LeVert – I don’t know.
Q: Why not? Does anyone know?
A: Kathleen Leyden, Director, Maine Coastal Program at the State Planning Office says that Maine invests 0 dollars in nourishing Maine's beaches. There are some programs for state parks, but there is no publicly-funded program to help Maine's beaches. It's been brought up in numerous public policy documents, but all the current projects are either private or very local.
Q: I know that for years and years there have been attempts at dredging in Southern Maine, but it's been just hard times. If Maine's beaches are such an important resource, why aren't they maintained and restored on a regular basis? In Wells, we need to restore our beaches.
A: Larry Bliss, state senator for South Portland. How often has the questioner talked to his local senator about the need to do this? Questioner responds – Many, many times. Larry Bliss - Money is a huge problem, he doesn't need to let anyone know. If we've listened to Charles Colgan, we know that money is a problem. That doesn't mean, though, that we can't reallocate resources. We have a citizen legislature that responds incredibly to calls and letters. I live very close to SMCC and know that the beach is important. Other legislators need to hear from their constituents if they want change.
A: Pendleton - In California, dam removal is a big help, and so is sand coming from hills. We sometimes forget that sand has to come from somewhere. That 100-200 million dollars per year spent in California is a small amount.
Q: I’m on the shoreline commission in Saco that deals with beach management. In order for the Army Corps to place a barrier, they need to see that beach nourishment will occur in the future. There are all kinds of problems for the dredged sand getting back to beaches, especially if the sand drifts to other towns. We should understand the problem and work together.
The State of Maine's Beaches in 2009 - Water Quality
After a short break we will be hearing a presentation called The State of Maine's Beaches in 2009. The speakers will be Stephen Dickson and Peter Slovinsky from Maine Geological Survey; Mark Margerum from Maine's Department of Environmental Protection; and, Keri Lindberg from Maine Sea Grant and UMaine Cooperative Extension.
We are welcomed by Steve Dickson, explaining that the presentation will be broken into two parts: water quality and geology. Mark Margerum, Program Manager for the Maine Healthy Beaches Program at the MDEP, will speak with Keri Lindberg, the Statewide Coordinator for the Maine Healthy Beaches Program. First up is Mr. Margerum.
Mark is here representing the DEP and wants us to know that the agency is not looking to change the Maine Healthy Beaches program much. He wants to continue to analyze the recent spate of bacteria and other issues on the beaches and is working hard already to address these problems. The DEP feels that this is a good fit for our program, but he's learning quickly in his new role with the program.
Keri coordinates the program. MHB is a statewide effort to monitor water quality and protect public health along Maine's coastal beaches. Funding is provided by a U.S. EPA grant. Today’s presentation will cover the State of Maine’s Beaches as far as water quality is concerned. This program monitors for Enterococci, and indicator of fecal contamination from the guts of warm-blooded animals such as humans, dogs, waterfowl and wildlife. In 2009, Maine has 62 beaches that participate spanning from Kittery to MDI, but today we are only going to talk about a dozen of them, located primarily in York and Cumberland County. I will briefly shared water quality data and potential pollution sources moving north to south along the coast.
First, Long Sands Beach in York. Keri puts a map on the screen of the beach, with data from 2003 to 2008. Overall, Long Sands Beach has beautiful water quality. However, there are some potential sources of bacteria. It is important to note potential as it is difficult to determine actual sources and Enterococci does not differentiate between human and non-human sources of bacteria.
Cape Neddick Beach. Here, due to the Cape Neddick River outlet, the bacteria levels have been higher compared to Long Sands. There is a lot of activity here, and it is more threatened. York is very proactive with its water quality program and is taking action to help pinpoint sources and figure out solutions. York has hired a shoreland resource officer who will examine local land-use practices and how they affect water quality, including collecting samples upriver to help pinpoint sources. It has been popular in York thus far, and is receiving local support. The board of selectmen unanimously passed the plan to continue this work in 2009 with funding to supplement what Healthy Beaches can support.
Ogunquit Beaches. Ogunquit has been divided into separate beach management areas water quality can differ greatly from one end to another; primarily due to the impact of the Ogunquit River mouth. There have been bacteria spikes here, exceeding the EPA safety limit. These are happening close to the river. Why? Rainfall washes the land and picks up various contaminants including malfunctioning septic system, pet waste, manure and compost piles too close to the stream bank. The water reaches stormdrains, streams, rivers, etc., and eventually makes its way to the shoreline. The watershed for the Ogunquit beaches is large, this is land mass draining to this particular water body. Many additional monitoring sites have been set up, and there are acoustic doppler profiling and other measure being set up along Ogunquit's beaches to identify pollution and bacteria sources. Generally, the larger the waves, the less the bacteria. Also, the more rain, the more bacteria. Maine Healthy Beaches is working to bring towns and other groups in the Ogunquit area together to identify and remediate pollution sources within the watershed.
Casino Square in Wells, Maine. The water quality is generally very good here, but an increase in impervious surfaces may be a threat. This is a heavily used beach.
Wells Beach. Also good quality, despite a river mouth along the beach. As with other beaches, there are threats.
Mother's Beach, Kennebunk. Overall good quality.
Gooch's Beach, Kennebunk. This area has had consistent bacteria problems, especially after large rain events. This is due in large part to the mouth of the Kennebunk River, which has a very large watershed. Many volunteers have worked for years on extra measurements along this river and watershed, and they are identifying hotspots in certain regions to help clean up. Working with the Maine Geological Survey, there has been a circulation study of the area and additional data analysis. One surprise of the study is that 59% of high samples were taken on a flood tide. Pollutants are leaving the river but hanging out just offshore, and then are being returned to the beach once the tide changes to flooding. Local circulation patterns may also be depositing pollutants and seaweed near site KBK-2, which could help lead to water quality issues. The town has been great in terms of improving their stormwater system and encouraging education and boating restrictions.
Goose Rocks Beach, Kennebunkport. Another area where freshwater meets the shoreline, causing water quality problems. There are several examples of monitoring sites which exceed EPA limits, especially at the river mouths. Lots of potential sources for bacteria, both up river and along the coast. There has been special study work along Goose Rocks looking for sources, property surveys and more. Although bacteria levels are still high, there is a definite downward trend. The MGS circulation study determined this areas does not flush out well with the semi-diurnal tides and contaminants are pinned or kept at the beach by a large eddy or gyre formation.
Gil Bouche Park/Biddeford Pool Beach. Overall very good water quality. Lots of boating and moorings can lead to a lot of people dumping waste overboard.
Hills Beach, Biddeford. Exit of the Saco River means a lot of potential for problems. Problems with water quality here are being worked on by the town of Biddeford, especially in the areas of GIS mapping. Lots of properties surveyed throughout the watershed and illegal Basket Island discharges have been remedied.
Bayview and Kinney Shores, Saco, ME. Generally pretty good, but some bacteria spikes from Goosefare Brook on the north end.
Old Orchard Beach. Some spikes in bacteria, especially after rain events and the outlet of Goosefare Brook. This is a very large beach which has been divided into separate management areas as water quality can vary significantly on one end compared to the other. OOB is very heavily used.
Scarborough Beach State Park. Unlike the rest of the beaches, there's very little development around Scarborough Beach and potential for contamination. Very good water quality.
Higgins Beach, Scarborough, ME. Outflow of the Spurwink River has resulted in higher bacteria levels, especially following rainfall. The town is beginning to take notice of problems and has been improvements to the stormwater system.
Crescent Beach State Park. Overall very good water quality, however a small outlet by Kettle Cove lead to high bacteria levels, especially following rainfall.
Willard Beach, South Portland, ME. Has had some consistent spikes in bacteria, especially after rain events. The local beach manager is working to put out alerts after big rain storms. Willard Beach (just outside the window!) is very heavily used, and urban. Like many areas, it is multiple sources of bacteria acting together to cause a larger problem.
Popham Beach, Phippsburg, ME. A large beach, split into several sections, but overall very good water quality.
Questions? Rocky asks how many sewage treatment plans are on the rivers in question. He didn't realize that the Ogunquit sewage treatment plant pumped sewage offshore. A man from the area says that it was removed from the river and located a mile and a half offshore, and the result has been much cleaner water in the river and at the inlet.
John White responds to the treatment plant question that the Kennebunkport Sewage Treatment Plant pumps directly into the river, and is pleased to report that the Kennebunkport Plant does a good job disinfecting the river and keeping it clean. Disinfectant is not required, but this plant is doing it anyway, which goes a long way toward water quality. Also, after hearing about increased storms, the fact that water quality will be hurt wasn't mentioned. Mr. White thinks that water quality will be an increasing problem, despite the pleasant trends currently. Some solutions include better stormwater runoff and septic tank improvements.
Another questioner asks whether there have been cost-benefit studies about sewage treatment. Keri answers that she hasn't heard of such studies, but they're a great idea. She says it's up the local areas.
Another questioner asks whether there is data older than 2002. Keri answers that, no, there isn't older data. The questioner thinks that the data may be too small to make predictions about overall trends, and wonders whether this is just a result of natural trends. Keri responds that there simply wasn't the funding to get data previously.
Question: What about the impact of lawncare and pesticides? We can increase waterside buffers and decrease out dependance on chemicals.
Question: Peter Rush of the Portland Water District. There are a lot of regulations involved in this issue, more so than with drinking water. He says that in his 20 years, there isn't a lot of fluctuation from year to year in water quality. Big rain events are the biggest problems, and Portland is good about putting out alerts. Also, he says, there are other options on how to solve these issues, and the EPA hasn't necessarily given the best answers for how to do this.
Question: Ed Dion of the East End Beach asks if there have been studies about whether higher bacteria levels have affected humans? Keri responds that there is a huge need for such studies. It goes very underreported in Maine, these issues. Keri says that the DEP is coordinating with DHHS about what questions to ask and how they can do it. Similar studies should be done for economic impacts, she says.
Question: All water runs downhill. So, if you're trying to determine the problems, it may seem simplistic, but you can just look at the population increase in Southern Maine. There has been a large increase in impervious surfaces, and that will harm water quality. Also, he appreciates and depends upon Keri et al for their help and dedication to not only Southern Maine but the entire coast. Thunderous applause!
We are welcomed by Steve Dickson, explaining that the presentation will be broken into two parts: water quality and geology. Mark Margerum, Program Manager for the Maine Healthy Beaches Program at the MDEP, will speak with Keri Lindberg, the Statewide Coordinator for the Maine Healthy Beaches Program. First up is Mr. Margerum.
Mark is here representing the DEP and wants us to know that the agency is not looking to change the Maine Healthy Beaches program much. He wants to continue to analyze the recent spate of bacteria and other issues on the beaches and is working hard already to address these problems. The DEP feels that this is a good fit for our program, but he's learning quickly in his new role with the program.
Keri coordinates the program. MHB is a statewide effort to monitor water quality and protect public health along Maine's coastal beaches. Funding is provided by a U.S. EPA grant. Today’s presentation will cover the State of Maine’s Beaches as far as water quality is concerned. This program monitors for Enterococci, and indicator of fecal contamination from the guts of warm-blooded animals such as humans, dogs, waterfowl and wildlife. In 2009, Maine has 62 beaches that participate spanning from Kittery to MDI, but today we are only going to talk about a dozen of them, located primarily in York and Cumberland County. I will briefly shared water quality data and potential pollution sources moving north to south along the coast.
First, Long Sands Beach in York. Keri puts a map on the screen of the beach, with data from 2003 to 2008. Overall, Long Sands Beach has beautiful water quality. However, there are some potential sources of bacteria. It is important to note potential as it is difficult to determine actual sources and Enterococci does not differentiate between human and non-human sources of bacteria.
Cape Neddick Beach. Here, due to the Cape Neddick River outlet, the bacteria levels have been higher compared to Long Sands. There is a lot of activity here, and it is more threatened. York is very proactive with its water quality program and is taking action to help pinpoint sources and figure out solutions. York has hired a shoreland resource officer who will examine local land-use practices and how they affect water quality, including collecting samples upriver to help pinpoint sources. It has been popular in York thus far, and is receiving local support. The board of selectmen unanimously passed the plan to continue this work in 2009 with funding to supplement what Healthy Beaches can support.
Ogunquit Beaches. Ogunquit has been divided into separate beach management areas water quality can differ greatly from one end to another; primarily due to the impact of the Ogunquit River mouth. There have been bacteria spikes here, exceeding the EPA safety limit. These are happening close to the river. Why? Rainfall washes the land and picks up various contaminants including malfunctioning septic system, pet waste, manure and compost piles too close to the stream bank. The water reaches stormdrains, streams, rivers, etc., and eventually makes its way to the shoreline. The watershed for the Ogunquit beaches is large, this is land mass draining to this particular water body. Many additional monitoring sites have been set up, and there are acoustic doppler profiling and other measure being set up along Ogunquit's beaches to identify pollution and bacteria sources. Generally, the larger the waves, the less the bacteria. Also, the more rain, the more bacteria. Maine Healthy Beaches is working to bring towns and other groups in the Ogunquit area together to identify and remediate pollution sources within the watershed.
Casino Square in Wells, Maine. The water quality is generally very good here, but an increase in impervious surfaces may be a threat. This is a heavily used beach.
Wells Beach. Also good quality, despite a river mouth along the beach. As with other beaches, there are threats.
Mother's Beach, Kennebunk. Overall good quality.
Gooch's Beach, Kennebunk. This area has had consistent bacteria problems, especially after large rain events. This is due in large part to the mouth of the Kennebunk River, which has a very large watershed. Many volunteers have worked for years on extra measurements along this river and watershed, and they are identifying hotspots in certain regions to help clean up. Working with the Maine Geological Survey, there has been a circulation study of the area and additional data analysis. One surprise of the study is that 59% of high samples were taken on a flood tide. Pollutants are leaving the river but hanging out just offshore, and then are being returned to the beach once the tide changes to flooding. Local circulation patterns may also be depositing pollutants and seaweed near site KBK-2, which could help lead to water quality issues. The town has been great in terms of improving their stormwater system and encouraging education and boating restrictions.
Goose Rocks Beach, Kennebunkport. Another area where freshwater meets the shoreline, causing water quality problems. There are several examples of monitoring sites which exceed EPA limits, especially at the river mouths. Lots of potential sources for bacteria, both up river and along the coast. There has been special study work along Goose Rocks looking for sources, property surveys and more. Although bacteria levels are still high, there is a definite downward trend. The MGS circulation study determined this areas does not flush out well with the semi-diurnal tides and contaminants are pinned or kept at the beach by a large eddy or gyre formation.
Gil Bouche Park/Biddeford Pool Beach. Overall very good water quality. Lots of boating and moorings can lead to a lot of people dumping waste overboard.
Hills Beach, Biddeford. Exit of the Saco River means a lot of potential for problems. Problems with water quality here are being worked on by the town of Biddeford, especially in the areas of GIS mapping. Lots of properties surveyed throughout the watershed and illegal Basket Island discharges have been remedied.
Bayview and Kinney Shores, Saco, ME. Generally pretty good, but some bacteria spikes from Goosefare Brook on the north end.
Old Orchard Beach. Some spikes in bacteria, especially after rain events and the outlet of Goosefare Brook. This is a very large beach which has been divided into separate management areas as water quality can vary significantly on one end compared to the other. OOB is very heavily used.
Scarborough Beach State Park. Unlike the rest of the beaches, there's very little development around Scarborough Beach and potential for contamination. Very good water quality.
Higgins Beach, Scarborough, ME. Outflow of the Spurwink River has resulted in higher bacteria levels, especially following rainfall. The town is beginning to take notice of problems and has been improvements to the stormwater system.
Crescent Beach State Park. Overall very good water quality, however a small outlet by Kettle Cove lead to high bacteria levels, especially following rainfall.
Willard Beach, South Portland, ME. Has had some consistent spikes in bacteria, especially after rain events. The local beach manager is working to put out alerts after big rain storms. Willard Beach (just outside the window!) is very heavily used, and urban. Like many areas, it is multiple sources of bacteria acting together to cause a larger problem.
Popham Beach, Phippsburg, ME. A large beach, split into several sections, but overall very good water quality.
Questions? Rocky asks how many sewage treatment plans are on the rivers in question. He didn't realize that the Ogunquit sewage treatment plant pumped sewage offshore. A man from the area says that it was removed from the river and located a mile and a half offshore, and the result has been much cleaner water in the river and at the inlet.
John White responds to the treatment plant question that the Kennebunkport Sewage Treatment Plant pumps directly into the river, and is pleased to report that the Kennebunkport Plant does a good job disinfecting the river and keeping it clean. Disinfectant is not required, but this plant is doing it anyway, which goes a long way toward water quality. Also, after hearing about increased storms, the fact that water quality will be hurt wasn't mentioned. Mr. White thinks that water quality will be an increasing problem, despite the pleasant trends currently. Some solutions include better stormwater runoff and septic tank improvements.
Another questioner asks whether there have been cost-benefit studies about sewage treatment. Keri answers that she hasn't heard of such studies, but they're a great idea. She says it's up the local areas.
Another questioner asks whether there is data older than 2002. Keri answers that, no, there isn't older data. The questioner thinks that the data may be too small to make predictions about overall trends, and wonders whether this is just a result of natural trends. Keri responds that there simply wasn't the funding to get data previously.
Question: What about the impact of lawncare and pesticides? We can increase waterside buffers and decrease out dependance on chemicals.
Question: Peter Rush of the Portland Water District. There are a lot of regulations involved in this issue, more so than with drinking water. He says that in his 20 years, there isn't a lot of fluctuation from year to year in water quality. Big rain events are the biggest problems, and Portland is good about putting out alerts. Also, he says, there are other options on how to solve these issues, and the EPA hasn't necessarily given the best answers for how to do this.
Question: Ed Dion of the East End Beach asks if there have been studies about whether higher bacteria levels have affected humans? Keri responds that there is a huge need for such studies. It goes very underreported in Maine, these issues. Keri says that the DEP is coordinating with DHHS about what questions to ask and how they can do it. Similar studies should be done for economic impacts, she says.
Question: All water runs downhill. So, if you're trying to determine the problems, it may seem simplistic, but you can just look at the population increase in Southern Maine. There has been a large increase in impervious surfaces, and that will harm water quality. Also, he appreciates and depends upon Keri et al for their help and dedication to not only Southern Maine but the entire coast. Thunderous applause!
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Recent Developments in Science and Public Policy
Robert Almeder, Emeritus Professor of Philosophy of Science at Georgia State University introduces our speakers, Ian Burns and Richard Lindzen.
Ian Burns works with the Governor's Office of Energy Independence and Security. He's going to talk about the effects of climate change on Maine's beaches.
The problem, he says, is that we're enormously dependent on fossil fuels. The forecasts for greenhouse gases are sharply rising, and although the US only plays a part in the overall problem, we have a very larger per capita problem. Maine is slightly better than the rest of the other states in terms of energy consumption. He prevents a Pacala Socolow wedge chart showing different results for different approaches.
The Governor's Office of Energy as formed in 2008 and was charged with creating an energy plan for the state. The approach has three bottom lines: environmental health, economic security and security. They identified a number of strategies, including: strengthening energy independence, fostering renewable energy sources, improving transportation and fuel efficiencies and upgrading electricity transportation. Ian says that a lot of energy is lost in transportation and heat retention, and that there is a lot of room for improvement. In Denmark, he says, 80% of the home are heated with industrial heat byproducts. In addition to being more efficient, it is also much cheaper than energy we currently purchase. For a human cost perspective, he says, the economic impacts of investing in energy efficiency is the most important factor.
Fostering renewable energy, he says, is very important. Maine has a large potential for renewable energy, including a large wind resource (onshore and offshore) as well as cellulosic biofuels from woodfiber. Ian says that the University of Maine is working both on offshore wind systems as well as better ways to use wood biofuels. Right now we're harvesting about 6 million tons of wood in Maine each year. An additional four million tons, he says, is being left on the ground. Some of that is used to stabilize logging, but a lot is simply being wasted. Why? Because it doesn't pay to pick it up and truck it. If we can come up with value-added processes for this, it could be quite a benefit.
When we burn a gallon of oil, 80 cents on each dollar leaves Maine, and a big chunk of that leaves the country. If we buy an apple from a farmstand, though, more than one dollar returns to Maine for each dollar spent. Figuring out how to use our own resources wisely and locally will have both economic and environmental impacts.
Ian is reluctant to dip his toe into land planning, which he calls a "black hole." It's very important and useful, but he leaves it to the experts. However, he is more certain that we need to invest in infrastructure in order for good things to happen. Maine is in a very challenging fiscal time, and we are cutting off our nose to spite our face by cutting most of the same programs we could use to fix things. For example, the East Campus of the old AMHI is using far too much energy. This problem, he says, could be fixed for a very cost-effective system that would pay for itself in 2 years, but had to be dropped from the budget because of political squabbles. The State can do a lot lead the country.
Ian puts a picture of a St. John refinery above a wind turbine. We need a cultural shift in the way we use energy, and we need to shift from a fossil fuel culture to one where we use less to go about our daily lives. Finally, we need to figure out how to get that energy from purely renewable, sustainable sources.
Question: What is his take on how Maine can keep our energy costs low?
Ian: The Wind Power Task Force was a good start. They said: a giant windmill on a mountaintop was not something that a zoning board took into consideration. We have to respond to new situations as they come up, and these news things should be reported back to the legislature on a regular basis. Ian plugs his own office, which has a public advocate to help the mission of coordinating and directing zoning and planning decisions.
Question: What about a giant wind farm off the coast where it's shallow?
Ian: Offshore wind is certainly one of the portfolio. We are not quite there technologically for deep water offshore wind, but it's a possible solution.
Question: I live in Austria, where concrete blocks are used as building material instead of wood. Is there research in Maine about different building materials?
Ian: Not really. We've been locked in to a certain way of building which is not very efficient. We just passed a new building code, and the majority of new homes are not meeting that code. Before we can get to 0 energy loss, we need to meet the code we have.
Question: What can we do to improve transmission lines?
Ian: I'm not an expert, but there are a lot of things that can be done. The whole system is very complex and impressive, like a giant bathtub with a million tiny holes in the bathroom. Faucets at the top pour energy in, but the level of the water in the tub is not allowed to shift, or else things go back. We need to improve all kinds of meters, wires, substations, etc.
Next up is Richard Lindzen, the Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at MIT. See his bio at http://www.maine.gov/doc/nrimc/mgs/explore/marine/beach-conference/lindzen.htm
His talk is called Global Warming - A Peculiar Issue. This is a change of pace from the other presentations, he says. None of these programs proposed, he says, would make even a dent in climate change as it stands. He talks about a magazine article he has which discusses a conflict between Republicans and others. In the article, the writer says that "American voters ... tend to take global warming seriously ... and think that conservatives are insulting those on the east and west coasts." (Paraphrased) Some professors say that global warming is quickening. Prof. Lindzen questions this. He puts a graph on the board that shows temperatures from 1900 to now. There have been two warming events over that century. Another graph from the Boston Globe shows the current day's weather against the historical temps and average temps for those dates. Prof has put a red line through the middle which represents the whole change in temperature since 1900 in the world. It's not very thick. Thus, there's no significant increase since 1993...so how do you explain this as speeding up?
Now he shows a graph on sea ice, which vacillates widely. In 2008, the summer levels dipped, but the graph doesn't show this very drastically. In fact, in 1906, Amundsen crossed the Northwest Passage by boat, and a submarine surfaced there once. Professor claims that Al Gore is notorious for exploiting a normal person's ignorance of normal variations. Historic levels of ice on other areas are not much changed, either. Also, melting sea ice does not lead to higher sea levels. Along those same lines, there is no evidence that ice caps are melting.
A professor who said that climate change was quickening answered by saying that challenges should be kept to science, not politics. Professor Lindzen says that the IPCC report does not claim that climate change is quickening. Many people think that arguing from authority is easier than arguing from science, but here the authority doesn't even exist.
Next was one of Obama's scientists, Eric Holden, who had some pessimistic things to say about climate change. Professor Lindzen says that almost nothing he said was true. even with IPCC projections, sea level may rise only by 1.26 inches, which means that sea level will rise by one foot per century...exactly the same rate it has risen in the past 12,000 years.
It remains possible, however, that the data may not be good enough to make an accurate picture. Professor Lindzen puts up a map of 12 year changes in sea level across the globe. If you subtract a mean increase of 1.26 inches/decade, but in some places the rise is much faster, and in some places the sea level is decreasing. The problem of sea level is due to many factors, not just climate change, mostly tectonic changes.
In any event, as far as tipping points go, these debates have never entered the discussion. When it comes to CO2, every new bit of CO2 you add does less than its predecessors. Professor claims that the ignorance of these debate is understandable from those who want to state from authority, and not science.
Professor Lindzen says Eric Holder went on to trick the audience. Apart from the fact that climate is always changing, Mr. Holder's statements are unattributable to anthropogenic warming. There are many factors involved. We're bad at predicting disasters...from famines to ozone etc. It's incorrect to assume that the world has reached an 'optimal' climate. There does not appear to be an increase in draught linked to a rise in climate. There does not appear to be a link to crop yields. And, this is not what IPCC meant when they said 'consensus.' They meant that it is likely that the warming over the past 50 years is due to man's emissions.
How was this figure arrived at? Well, he says, it was bizarre. There were a series of models created, but they weren't very good. When these models couldn't find a valid for argument for warming, they assumed that it was caused by humans. Some scientists say that warming will return in 2009, but this is very suspicious.
At the heart of the issue, he says, is greenhouse gasses. How much warming do you get when you double the release of CO2? the first guide of this, "climate sensitivity", was 1.5-5 C. This is still the same number, and it's still done as it was in 1979. This is peculiar because uncertainty hasn't diminished...is simply running models the best way to accomplish this? Clouds and water vapor, he says, amplify the effects of CO2. Can you check this? Yes, he says. We have records of radiation and sea surface temperature.
Professor Lindzen start putting some mathematics on the screen (he calls it simple, but many people look baffled). There is a feedback loop, he says, in the equation. By solving this equation, you can take the fluxes observed by the satellite and compare them to sea surface temperatures and find the feedback factor. The assumption is that an increase in clouds and water vapor will hinder the atmosphere's natural ability to cool itself; they'll be natural blankets. This had led most groups to insist that climate change is "robust."
The data, however, shows exactly the opposite. In nature, he says, the effect of doubling CO2 output will be HALF. So, he says, the fundamental theory of global warming is wrong. Where do we go from here? It's hard to say...because so many who believe in global warming are insulted by this thought.
Question: Can you show us that again?
Professor: Yes. Using the models, he gets a result showing an increase in warming with an increase in CO2. However, when he uses real data, he gets a result showing a decrease in warming with an increase in CO2.
Question: Can you take that less-than-negative feedback back into the models?
Professor: You can't. The models can't handle clouds. There's numerical diffusion...which causes problems.
Question: What about the argument that we're in a little ice-age?
Professor: I have no idea. There are all kinds of things we don't understand. For example, advancing glaciers are a much bigger problem than retreating ones! All of a sudden, glaciers were retreating...both in places that were experiencing cooling and warming.
Question: Why was the IPCC consensus "hardly alarming"?
Professor: Becuase it's so vague, and because the numbers are so small. Only about .2 of a degree may (or may not) be from humans. It's still within the range of natural variation.
Question: What about volcanic eruptions?
Professor: Good question. In the aftermath of big eruptions, there is a cooling effect worldwide. They may disappear after a few years, or, if the atmosphere is very sensitive, it may last for decades. When you look at the data, it's almost always just a blip on the radar.
Question: What about the medieval warming period?
Professor: Well, they didn't have thermometers, but they were probably a bit warmer than they we are now.
Question: I've been focusing on the results, not the causes. Is that OK?
Professor: Yes. We must look at the robustness of society in the face of change. Why do thousands of people die in an earthquake in Iran but only one or two in California?
Question: What would you consider a significant change in global mean temperature?
Professor: Something that would compete with what we live with. Only when we start getting outside the normal bounds of what we can live with do we get danger.
Question: We always hear about how much more carbon we are putting into the atmosphere, is there any work about "how much is too much" for manmade carbon?
Professor: No. This room, for example, has twice the normal CO2 than the outside. Greenhouses have much higher CO2. Most of our vegetation grew in a time where there was much more CO2. By the time you can put enough CO2 in the air to make a lot of change, you'd run out of fossil fuels. Energy is another issue. We'll never run out, it'll just get more expensive. We have more reserves than Saudi Arabia. Why doesn't Exxon Mobil exploit them? Because if oil drops below $35 a barrel it won't be profitable.
Question: For Ian, why didn't you have hydo on that chart?
Ian: Because Maine has a significant amount of hydro power already. However, we have not seen very many cost-effective small hydro plants.
Question, from the Professor: Isn't efficiency the same as reducing the price, and when the price goes down you use more of it. How do you know you'll come out ahead in energy usage if you increase efficiency? If I could increase efficiency, why wouldn't I want to use more energy?
Ian: Well, as a percentage of GDP it may change. You don't know what people will spend their money on, whether it be health insurance or food, etc.
Ian Burns works with the Governor's Office of Energy Independence and Security. He's going to talk about the effects of climate change on Maine's beaches.
The problem, he says, is that we're enormously dependent on fossil fuels. The forecasts for greenhouse gases are sharply rising, and although the US only plays a part in the overall problem, we have a very larger per capita problem. Maine is slightly better than the rest of the other states in terms of energy consumption. He prevents a Pacala Socolow wedge chart showing different results for different approaches.
The Governor's Office of Energy as formed in 2008 and was charged with creating an energy plan for the state. The approach has three bottom lines: environmental health, economic security and security. They identified a number of strategies, including: strengthening energy independence, fostering renewable energy sources, improving transportation and fuel efficiencies and upgrading electricity transportation. Ian says that a lot of energy is lost in transportation and heat retention, and that there is a lot of room for improvement. In Denmark, he says, 80% of the home are heated with industrial heat byproducts. In addition to being more efficient, it is also much cheaper than energy we currently purchase. For a human cost perspective, he says, the economic impacts of investing in energy efficiency is the most important factor.
Fostering renewable energy, he says, is very important. Maine has a large potential for renewable energy, including a large wind resource (onshore and offshore) as well as cellulosic biofuels from woodfiber. Ian says that the University of Maine is working both on offshore wind systems as well as better ways to use wood biofuels. Right now we're harvesting about 6 million tons of wood in Maine each year. An additional four million tons, he says, is being left on the ground. Some of that is used to stabilize logging, but a lot is simply being wasted. Why? Because it doesn't pay to pick it up and truck it. If we can come up with value-added processes for this, it could be quite a benefit.
When we burn a gallon of oil, 80 cents on each dollar leaves Maine, and a big chunk of that leaves the country. If we buy an apple from a farmstand, though, more than one dollar returns to Maine for each dollar spent. Figuring out how to use our own resources wisely and locally will have both economic and environmental impacts.
Ian is reluctant to dip his toe into land planning, which he calls a "black hole." It's very important and useful, but he leaves it to the experts. However, he is more certain that we need to invest in infrastructure in order for good things to happen. Maine is in a very challenging fiscal time, and we are cutting off our nose to spite our face by cutting most of the same programs we could use to fix things. For example, the East Campus of the old AMHI is using far too much energy. This problem, he says, could be fixed for a very cost-effective system that would pay for itself in 2 years, but had to be dropped from the budget because of political squabbles. The State can do a lot lead the country.
Ian puts a picture of a St. John refinery above a wind turbine. We need a cultural shift in the way we use energy, and we need to shift from a fossil fuel culture to one where we use less to go about our daily lives. Finally, we need to figure out how to get that energy from purely renewable, sustainable sources.
Question: What is his take on how Maine can keep our energy costs low?
Ian: The Wind Power Task Force was a good start. They said: a giant windmill on a mountaintop was not something that a zoning board took into consideration. We have to respond to new situations as they come up, and these news things should be reported back to the legislature on a regular basis. Ian plugs his own office, which has a public advocate to help the mission of coordinating and directing zoning and planning decisions.
Question: What about a giant wind farm off the coast where it's shallow?
Ian: Offshore wind is certainly one of the portfolio. We are not quite there technologically for deep water offshore wind, but it's a possible solution.
Question: I live in Austria, where concrete blocks are used as building material instead of wood. Is there research in Maine about different building materials?
Ian: Not really. We've been locked in to a certain way of building which is not very efficient. We just passed a new building code, and the majority of new homes are not meeting that code. Before we can get to 0 energy loss, we need to meet the code we have.
Question: What can we do to improve transmission lines?
Ian: I'm not an expert, but there are a lot of things that can be done. The whole system is very complex and impressive, like a giant bathtub with a million tiny holes in the bathroom. Faucets at the top pour energy in, but the level of the water in the tub is not allowed to shift, or else things go back. We need to improve all kinds of meters, wires, substations, etc.
Next up is Richard Lindzen, the Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at MIT. See his bio at http://www.maine.gov/doc/nrimc/mgs/explore/marine/beach-conference/lindzen.htm
His talk is called Global Warming - A Peculiar Issue. This is a change of pace from the other presentations, he says. None of these programs proposed, he says, would make even a dent in climate change as it stands. He talks about a magazine article he has which discusses a conflict between Republicans and others. In the article, the writer says that "American voters ... tend to take global warming seriously ... and think that conservatives are insulting those on the east and west coasts." (Paraphrased) Some professors say that global warming is quickening. Prof. Lindzen questions this. He puts a graph on the board that shows temperatures from 1900 to now. There have been two warming events over that century. Another graph from the Boston Globe shows the current day's weather against the historical temps and average temps for those dates. Prof has put a red line through the middle which represents the whole change in temperature since 1900 in the world. It's not very thick. Thus, there's no significant increase since 1993...so how do you explain this as speeding up?
Now he shows a graph on sea ice, which vacillates widely. In 2008, the summer levels dipped, but the graph doesn't show this very drastically. In fact, in 1906, Amundsen crossed the Northwest Passage by boat, and a submarine surfaced there once. Professor claims that Al Gore is notorious for exploiting a normal person's ignorance of normal variations. Historic levels of ice on other areas are not much changed, either. Also, melting sea ice does not lead to higher sea levels. Along those same lines, there is no evidence that ice caps are melting.
A professor who said that climate change was quickening answered by saying that challenges should be kept to science, not politics. Professor Lindzen says that the IPCC report does not claim that climate change is quickening. Many people think that arguing from authority is easier than arguing from science, but here the authority doesn't even exist.
Next was one of Obama's scientists, Eric Holden, who had some pessimistic things to say about climate change. Professor Lindzen says that almost nothing he said was true. even with IPCC projections, sea level may rise only by 1.26 inches, which means that sea level will rise by one foot per century...exactly the same rate it has risen in the past 12,000 years.
It remains possible, however, that the data may not be good enough to make an accurate picture. Professor Lindzen puts up a map of 12 year changes in sea level across the globe. If you subtract a mean increase of 1.26 inches/decade, but in some places the rise is much faster, and in some places the sea level is decreasing. The problem of sea level is due to many factors, not just climate change, mostly tectonic changes.
In any event, as far as tipping points go, these debates have never entered the discussion. When it comes to CO2, every new bit of CO2 you add does less than its predecessors. Professor claims that the ignorance of these debate is understandable from those who want to state from authority, and not science.
Professor Lindzen says Eric Holder went on to trick the audience. Apart from the fact that climate is always changing, Mr. Holder's statements are unattributable to anthropogenic warming. There are many factors involved. We're bad at predicting disasters...from famines to ozone etc. It's incorrect to assume that the world has reached an 'optimal' climate. There does not appear to be an increase in draught linked to a rise in climate. There does not appear to be a link to crop yields. And, this is not what IPCC meant when they said 'consensus.' They meant that it is likely that the warming over the past 50 years is due to man's emissions.
How was this figure arrived at? Well, he says, it was bizarre. There were a series of models created, but they weren't very good. When these models couldn't find a valid for argument for warming, they assumed that it was caused by humans. Some scientists say that warming will return in 2009, but this is very suspicious.
At the heart of the issue, he says, is greenhouse gasses. How much warming do you get when you double the release of CO2? the first guide of this, "climate sensitivity", was 1.5-5 C. This is still the same number, and it's still done as it was in 1979. This is peculiar because uncertainty hasn't diminished...is simply running models the best way to accomplish this? Clouds and water vapor, he says, amplify the effects of CO2. Can you check this? Yes, he says. We have records of radiation and sea surface temperature.
Professor Lindzen start putting some mathematics on the screen (he calls it simple, but many people look baffled). There is a feedback loop, he says, in the equation. By solving this equation, you can take the fluxes observed by the satellite and compare them to sea surface temperatures and find the feedback factor. The assumption is that an increase in clouds and water vapor will hinder the atmosphere's natural ability to cool itself; they'll be natural blankets. This had led most groups to insist that climate change is "robust."
The data, however, shows exactly the opposite. In nature, he says, the effect of doubling CO2 output will be HALF. So, he says, the fundamental theory of global warming is wrong. Where do we go from here? It's hard to say...because so many who believe in global warming are insulted by this thought.
Question: Can you show us that again?
Professor: Yes. Using the models, he gets a result showing an increase in warming with an increase in CO2. However, when he uses real data, he gets a result showing a decrease in warming with an increase in CO2.
Question: Can you take that less-than-negative feedback back into the models?
Professor: You can't. The models can't handle clouds. There's numerical diffusion...which causes problems.
Question: What about the argument that we're in a little ice-age?
Professor: I have no idea. There are all kinds of things we don't understand. For example, advancing glaciers are a much bigger problem than retreating ones! All of a sudden, glaciers were retreating...both in places that were experiencing cooling and warming.
Question: Why was the IPCC consensus "hardly alarming"?
Professor: Becuase it's so vague, and because the numbers are so small. Only about .2 of a degree may (or may not) be from humans. It's still within the range of natural variation.
Question: What about volcanic eruptions?
Professor: Good question. In the aftermath of big eruptions, there is a cooling effect worldwide. They may disappear after a few years, or, if the atmosphere is very sensitive, it may last for decades. When you look at the data, it's almost always just a blip on the radar.
Question: What about the medieval warming period?
Professor: Well, they didn't have thermometers, but they were probably a bit warmer than they we are now.
Question: I've been focusing on the results, not the causes. Is that OK?
Professor: Yes. We must look at the robustness of society in the face of change. Why do thousands of people die in an earthquake in Iran but only one or two in California?
Question: What would you consider a significant change in global mean temperature?
Professor: Something that would compete with what we live with. Only when we start getting outside the normal bounds of what we can live with do we get danger.
Question: We always hear about how much more carbon we are putting into the atmosphere, is there any work about "how much is too much" for manmade carbon?
Professor: No. This room, for example, has twice the normal CO2 than the outside. Greenhouses have much higher CO2. Most of our vegetation grew in a time where there was much more CO2. By the time you can put enough CO2 in the air to make a lot of change, you'd run out of fossil fuels. Energy is another issue. We'll never run out, it'll just get more expensive. We have more reserves than Saudi Arabia. Why doesn't Exxon Mobil exploit them? Because if oil drops below $35 a barrel it won't be profitable.
Question: For Ian, why didn't you have hydo on that chart?
Ian: Because Maine has a significant amount of hydro power already. However, we have not seen very many cost-effective small hydro plants.
Question, from the Professor: Isn't efficiency the same as reducing the price, and when the price goes down you use more of it. How do you know you'll come out ahead in energy usage if you increase efficiency? If I could increase efficiency, why wouldn't I want to use more energy?
Ian: Well, as a percentage of GDP it may change. You don't know what people will spend their money on, whether it be health insurance or food, etc.
The State of Maine's Beaches in 2009 - Geology
Stephen Dickson and Peter Slovinsky are ready to do a presentation called Resilient Beaches: Recovery from the 2007 Patriot's Day Storm.
The Maine Geological Survey's annual State of Maine's Beaches report this year focuses on the 2007 Patriot's Day Storm. The report presents different letter grades to summarize different beaches depending on how they've recovered. Beaches that have done well but will not be examined in detail during the talk are: Higgins: B. Goochs: B. Laudholm: B. Ogunquit: B. Long Sands: B.
It has taken a couple years for these beaches to recover, and that's OK. The report is available here on a CD and will be posted on the Maine Geological Survey web site later this summer.
Peter takes over, and complains that Stephen stole his whole introduction! In 2009, he looked at 14 beaches to test the recovery after the storm. Peter discusses the Emory Profiling Method to see the change in elevation and make beach profiles. He looked especially at berm and dune height.
There has been a lot of data, and he thinks that "snapshots in time" is the best way to show it. So, we'll look at April/May of 2006-2009. 2006 is being used as a pre-storm baseline, and 2007 is used as an immediate post-storm baseline. Letter grades are given to beaches based on their recovery in 2008 and 2009. A and B is what they were shooting for, Cs were "cautiously pleased." Most of the beaches have 2, 3 or 4 profiles taken on a monthly basis.
Willard Beach. A-. Very good recovery after some of the worst erosion at any beach from the storm. Lost between 30 and 40 feet of dune! A chart put on the screen shows that Willard Beach has recovered steadily after the storm. In another section of the beach, a rockier section, recovery has been slower, but is still occurring. Peter thinks that local management has been very responsible for this. MGS summer interns have taken GIS data on vegetation changes on the shorelines each year. Overall, recovery has been very good. Dune recovery has been even better, sometimes over 21 feet of seaward growth.
Scarborough Beach. C+. This beach was hit hard. Some of the exact profiling locations were lost during the storm and estimated, so some data may not be exact. For one spot on the beach, the 2009 line is lower than previous levels, which could have been caused by other storms in 2009. We must keep our eye on this beach.
Western Beach. B. A dramatic loss here from 2006 to 2007. There has been some recovery in on section, but not as much as he'd like. In another area, though, recovery has been great. The dunes have actually grown in height. A similar study as done at Willard Beach has shown some sections are losing sand that is piling up in other sections, causing a lot of growth on the point of Western Beach.
East Grand Beach. B. Not a whole lot of loss here, but some sections are recovering slowly. On the other hand, one section of East Grand has gained well, almost to 2006 levels.
Ferry Beach. C-. One section of this beach got an F. There was a dramatic loss of beach, that continues to erode at all sites. Peter is very concerned about this beach, but is hopeful that the time will help. Oddly, a section of the beach just south from the section that received an F recovered very well, getting an A. This section was helped by human addition of sand to the dune, and is a positive sign for recovery.
Goose Rocks Beach. B-. This beach is heavily influenced by the nearby rivers. The recovery will continue to change a lot, mostly due to continued channel movement. Other areas are less influenced by rivers and haven't recovered very well.
Drakes Island Beach. B-. Waves have pushed sand down the beach, and southern ends of the beach have recovered very well. The story up the beach, though, is different. This section got a D, with erosion continuing in 2008 and 2009.
Wells Beach. A. This beach has fared very well. Some areas have increased over their 2006 levels, others gained sand and elevation from the Patriot's Day Storm.
Overall, the grade for the State is a B/B-. Peter is happy with this. The Patriot's Day Storm was a huge event, and the fact that we've come this far is encouraging. He cautions that the data may be affected by other spring storms in 2008 and 2009 right before the collection of data. Overall, armored beaches (Goochs, Wells) have fared well getting back to their pre-storm starting elevations. Similarly, there have been good recoveries at beaches where people have come in and planted vegetation, planted snow fences, and taken other beach management measures. Only time will tell if our beaches will recover in time for another big storm event.
Question: Going back to the overall report card, the questioner has had a hard time getting sand back to the beaches. It's an enormous task for local beaches groups to get permits to fix beaches and/or work on them. MGS is more than happy to work with communities to work on plans for their beaches. Moving sand does require permits from the Department of Environmental Protection, but Peter isn't really qualified to speak on that process, he says.
Question: Are any islands included in the beach studies? No.
Question: Laudholm Beach does not have a seawall, Wells beach does. Do seawalls cause erosion or help recovery? Peter was surprised to see armored beaches do so well. He thinks that it has a lot to do with the specific geography of the beaches and how the sand and sediment travels when it enters the water. What about the other beaches with seawalls? Peter says that Goose Rocks has some seawalls, Goochs is all seawalls. Some do and some don't.
Question: One thing about Laudholm, river mouths can affect the position of sand. A lot of the sand from Laudholm has gone to Crescent Beach across the Little River inlet.
The Maine Geological Survey's annual State of Maine's Beaches report this year focuses on the 2007 Patriot's Day Storm. The report presents different letter grades to summarize different beaches depending on how they've recovered. Beaches that have done well but will not be examined in detail during the talk are: Higgins: B. Goochs: B. Laudholm: B. Ogunquit: B. Long Sands: B.
It has taken a couple years for these beaches to recover, and that's OK. The report is available here on a CD and will be posted on the Maine Geological Survey web site later this summer.
Peter takes over, and complains that Stephen stole his whole introduction! In 2009, he looked at 14 beaches to test the recovery after the storm. Peter discusses the Emory Profiling Method to see the change in elevation and make beach profiles. He looked especially at berm and dune height.
There has been a lot of data, and he thinks that "snapshots in time" is the best way to show it. So, we'll look at April/May of 2006-2009. 2006 is being used as a pre-storm baseline, and 2007 is used as an immediate post-storm baseline. Letter grades are given to beaches based on their recovery in 2008 and 2009. A and B is what they were shooting for, Cs were "cautiously pleased." Most of the beaches have 2, 3 or 4 profiles taken on a monthly basis.
Willard Beach. A-. Very good recovery after some of the worst erosion at any beach from the storm. Lost between 30 and 40 feet of dune! A chart put on the screen shows that Willard Beach has recovered steadily after the storm. In another section of the beach, a rockier section, recovery has been slower, but is still occurring. Peter thinks that local management has been very responsible for this. MGS summer interns have taken GIS data on vegetation changes on the shorelines each year. Overall, recovery has been very good. Dune recovery has been even better, sometimes over 21 feet of seaward growth.
Scarborough Beach. C+. This beach was hit hard. Some of the exact profiling locations were lost during the storm and estimated, so some data may not be exact. For one spot on the beach, the 2009 line is lower than previous levels, which could have been caused by other storms in 2009. We must keep our eye on this beach.
Western Beach. B. A dramatic loss here from 2006 to 2007. There has been some recovery in on section, but not as much as he'd like. In another area, though, recovery has been great. The dunes have actually grown in height. A similar study as done at Willard Beach has shown some sections are losing sand that is piling up in other sections, causing a lot of growth on the point of Western Beach.
East Grand Beach. B. Not a whole lot of loss here, but some sections are recovering slowly. On the other hand, one section of East Grand has gained well, almost to 2006 levels.
Ferry Beach. C-. One section of this beach got an F. There was a dramatic loss of beach, that continues to erode at all sites. Peter is very concerned about this beach, but is hopeful that the time will help. Oddly, a section of the beach just south from the section that received an F recovered very well, getting an A. This section was helped by human addition of sand to the dune, and is a positive sign for recovery.
Goose Rocks Beach. B-. This beach is heavily influenced by the nearby rivers. The recovery will continue to change a lot, mostly due to continued channel movement. Other areas are less influenced by rivers and haven't recovered very well.
Drakes Island Beach. B-. Waves have pushed sand down the beach, and southern ends of the beach have recovered very well. The story up the beach, though, is different. This section got a D, with erosion continuing in 2008 and 2009.
Wells Beach. A. This beach has fared very well. Some areas have increased over their 2006 levels, others gained sand and elevation from the Patriot's Day Storm.
Overall, the grade for the State is a B/B-. Peter is happy with this. The Patriot's Day Storm was a huge event, and the fact that we've come this far is encouraging. He cautions that the data may be affected by other spring storms in 2008 and 2009 right before the collection of data. Overall, armored beaches (Goochs, Wells) have fared well getting back to their pre-storm starting elevations. Similarly, there have been good recoveries at beaches where people have come in and planted vegetation, planted snow fences, and taken other beach management measures. Only time will tell if our beaches will recover in time for another big storm event.
Question: Going back to the overall report card, the questioner has had a hard time getting sand back to the beaches. It's an enormous task for local beaches groups to get permits to fix beaches and/or work on them. MGS is more than happy to work with communities to work on plans for their beaches. Moving sand does require permits from the Department of Environmental Protection, but Peter isn't really qualified to speak on that process, he says.
Question: Are any islands included in the beach studies? No.
Question: Laudholm Beach does not have a seawall, Wells beach does. Do seawalls cause erosion or help recovery? Peter was surprised to see armored beaches do so well. He thinks that it has a lot to do with the specific geography of the beaches and how the sand and sediment travels when it enters the water. What about the other beaches with seawalls? Peter says that Goose Rocks has some seawalls, Goochs is all seawalls. Some do and some don't.
Question: One thing about Laudholm, river mouths can affect the position of sand. A lot of the sand from Laudholm has gone to Crescent Beach across the Little River inlet.
How To Preserve Your Beach Community
Janice Parente, Moderator, member of Surfriders Northern New England Chapter
Welcome, this session is about what you can do in your community. Janice is with the Maine Beaches steering committee representing the recreational beach user community.
She surfs all year round, and is an active member of the Surfrider Foundation, Northern New England Chapter. She regularly meets people who have been noticing changes in there local spots, water clarity or dune erosion, access, wildlife. The steering committee took these concerns into consideration and designed this session to address them. Common issues raised are sustainability, health and access. The speakers today will address these as well as other topics.
Judy Barrett, Public Health Nurse, Town of Kennebunkport
Judy will be sharing programs that the Town has used to educate and empower townspeople. Kennebunkport is the only town in the area that has a publicly funded position to address town health.
When Goose Rocks Beach was labeled one of 10 most polluted in the country the Town went to work addressing potential sources of pollution. In 2004 they put up signs warning people to stay out of the tide pools. In 2005 the selectmen approved participation in the Maine Healthy Beaches program. They received an advisory from the first testing. There is a 24 hour waiting period for testing samples. There was a delay in posting areas of the beach, or signs needed to be moved from one spot to the next.
They were getting very high counts, 1000 colonies. DEP helped identify sources of contamination. Livestock appeared to be an issue. No one was willing to take responsibility. Other sources investigated included cruise ships, seals, beavers, everything that wasn't human caused. Maine Healthy Beaches program determined that the sources were coming down the river. Tax payers were coming in looking for a tax rebate because it was driving down there property values. Residents were saying that volunteers and the lab were partial, or biased.
They eventually hired FB environmental to shadow the volunteer testing effort, using a secret lab. This found that the volunteer testing was accurate. Bacteria counts were found as far upstream as Route 1. Kennebunkport and Biddeford share the Little River, and Code Enforcement officers from each town coordinated efforts, using GIS to analyze survey efforts of septic systems. FB Environmental suggested testing for optical brighteners to track sources of contamination. This would cost $30,000. They agreed to do this in August of 2006.
Very little of Goose Rocks Beach is on sewer. An independent tester came in to test the sewer for leaks, but the results were negative. After the issue of pharmaceutical contamination surfaced the Town developed a collection system for unused pharmaceuticals and medications. Septic systems close to high tide were major sources of leaching. Many properties were developed in the 50's and many septic tanks were not being pumped out regularly. Donations from Rotarians and other civic groups helped to mitigate problems on individual properties such as oil tanks.
In August they planned to test for optical brighteners. It was very dry and tests came back inconclusive. This was not well received. They decided to scale back signage efforts to avoid anger. Selectmen were thinking of withdrawing from the Maine Healthy Beaches program.
They decided to create a Town-wide education program. They contacted Chris Feurt at Wells Reserve to help by drafting her UNE class to host a “Septic Social”. It was televised on Town cable channel. The event was very well attended. People were able to ask questions about regulations. They did a mass mailing to all waterfront property owners to highlight things that could help water quality. A gardener from the University of Maine came and gave a presentation about native plantings and how to control invasive species. They held a river day, DEP EPA and Wells Reserve were involved. Students from the New School contributed a watershed map. The Kennebunkport Historical Society made a display of the history of the Kennebunk River. They felt that a watershed approach was beneficial because habits and problems were common throughout the watershed.
Boaters started complaining about lack of pump out stations. They started working on developing a public pump out facility in the Kennebunk River. They now have a pump out station online 2009.
Eventually water samples began to improve in quality. The town began to implement small improvements. Including bathrooms at the beach, and dog cleanup stations.
Mike Horn, Chair, Ogunquit Conservation Commission
Ogunquit has a high percentage of elderly residents, but there is large support for the work of the Conservation Commission. Ogunquit approved a yearly budget of $25,000 for land acquisition, which has now added up to enough to move forward on some projects.
Mike related a story:
Ogunquit Beach has a dune system that is vital to the estuary and the beach. It supports many species of fish and birds, as well as rare plants. The dune had been degraded by pedestrian traffic, ave 30,000 visitors/weekend day and 10,000 visitors/weekday respectively. Traffic in the dunes caused compaction and erosion and damaged plant life.
In 1971 the dune was breached by a storm, but the Town repaired it. In 1974 the York County Soil and Water Conservation District and the Department of Agriculture and the town began reconstruction and restoration of the dunes. In subsequent years the agencies passed maintenance responsibilities to the Town.
In 2005, a storm demolished fencing which had been put in place by the Town. A large storm in 2007 caused damage to most of the remaining structure on the ocean side. FEMA, US FWS, and the town of Ogunquit have come into conflict over dune management. USFWS recommended that FEMA withhold funds to reconstruct the snow fencing because of perceived detrimental effects to plover nesting. Despite studies by Maine Inland Fisheries and Wildlife that show no correlation between plover nesting and the presence of fences.
After 2.5 years of negotiation, the Town and the USFWS reached an agreement on reconstruction of the fence. The fence not only deters pedestrian traffic but also captures sand and promotes dune growth. Mike shared a map of the river, dune and estuary system in Ogunquit.
The dunes are a result of building in the 70's and the builders lacked the knowledge of dune construction and built a dike with gravel, which doesn't support the same community of plants and animals as a natural sand dune.
The lesson learned is that these challenges must be met head on despite challenges in dealing with government bureaucracy.
Mike brought with him a history mapping of the Ogunquit beach and dunes produced by Steve Dickson.
Kristen Grant, Extension Associate, Maine Sea Grant and University of Maine Cooperative Extension
Kristen presented an overview and demonstration of the newly released “Accessing the Maine Coast” web site http://www.accessingthemainecoast.com/. The website contains information to help waterfront users, coastal communities, and land owners address issues related to coastal access. The intent of this website is to offer communities specific tools that address their specific needs.
Access is a key theme in communities all over coastal Maine. Maine is distinct from 45 other states in that the intertidal zone is generally deeded to the abutting property owner, rather than held by the State, as is true in most states. The website is a resource that can benefit Maine communities coast-wide. The hope is that with these resources communities can work out there issues cooperatively and avoid litigation.
Maine Sea Grant, UM Cooperative Extension and other partners held workshops between 2003 and 2006 to identify needs. There was a need for legal information related to access. Sea Grant received significant funding to conduct legal research. University of Maine Law School student developed a 40 page memo on tools available for managing access. A web site was determined to be the best format for presenting this information.
In the end the research showed that the 3 things you need to determine are: your access needs; your existing rights; what tool best suits your need. Tools include: buying access, contracting for access, regulating for access, and taxing to control access.
They decided to help people find the tools they needed by asking them to identify themselves as one of 3 stakeholder groups – private waterfront land owners, government or public interest entities, and waterfront user . In addition there are tabs to jump to tools and laws, as well as FAQ's. The information is presented based on the most pertinent questions for each stakeholder type. Different tools are discussed in detail including tax policy, contracting, acquisition, planning, etc. Major headings are pulled out and highlighted. Terms are linked in the Glossary. There is also a bibliography that highlights useful resources. The FAQ section is continuously updated and provides an interactive feature for users of the site.
Welcome, this session is about what you can do in your community. Janice is with the Maine Beaches steering committee representing the recreational beach user community.
She surfs all year round, and is an active member of the Surfrider Foundation, Northern New England Chapter. She regularly meets people who have been noticing changes in there local spots, water clarity or dune erosion, access, wildlife. The steering committee took these concerns into consideration and designed this session to address them. Common issues raised are sustainability, health and access. The speakers today will address these as well as other topics.
Judy Barrett, Public Health Nurse, Town of Kennebunkport
Judy will be sharing programs that the Town has used to educate and empower townspeople. Kennebunkport is the only town in the area that has a publicly funded position to address town health.
When Goose Rocks Beach was labeled one of 10 most polluted in the country the Town went to work addressing potential sources of pollution. In 2004 they put up signs warning people to stay out of the tide pools. In 2005 the selectmen approved participation in the Maine Healthy Beaches program. They received an advisory from the first testing. There is a 24 hour waiting period for testing samples. There was a delay in posting areas of the beach, or signs needed to be moved from one spot to the next.
They were getting very high counts, 1000 colonies. DEP helped identify sources of contamination. Livestock appeared to be an issue. No one was willing to take responsibility. Other sources investigated included cruise ships, seals, beavers, everything that wasn't human caused. Maine Healthy Beaches program determined that the sources were coming down the river. Tax payers were coming in looking for a tax rebate because it was driving down there property values. Residents were saying that volunteers and the lab were partial, or biased.
They eventually hired FB environmental to shadow the volunteer testing effort, using a secret lab. This found that the volunteer testing was accurate. Bacteria counts were found as far upstream as Route 1. Kennebunkport and Biddeford share the Little River, and Code Enforcement officers from each town coordinated efforts, using GIS to analyze survey efforts of septic systems. FB Environmental suggested testing for optical brighteners to track sources of contamination. This would cost $30,000. They agreed to do this in August of 2006.
Very little of Goose Rocks Beach is on sewer. An independent tester came in to test the sewer for leaks, but the results were negative. After the issue of pharmaceutical contamination surfaced the Town developed a collection system for unused pharmaceuticals and medications. Septic systems close to high tide were major sources of leaching. Many properties were developed in the 50's and many septic tanks were not being pumped out regularly. Donations from Rotarians and other civic groups helped to mitigate problems on individual properties such as oil tanks.
In August they planned to test for optical brighteners. It was very dry and tests came back inconclusive. This was not well received. They decided to scale back signage efforts to avoid anger. Selectmen were thinking of withdrawing from the Maine Healthy Beaches program.
They decided to create a Town-wide education program. They contacted Chris Feurt at Wells Reserve to help by drafting her UNE class to host a “Septic Social”. It was televised on Town cable channel. The event was very well attended. People were able to ask questions about regulations. They did a mass mailing to all waterfront property owners to highlight things that could help water quality. A gardener from the University of Maine came and gave a presentation about native plantings and how to control invasive species. They held a river day, DEP EPA and Wells Reserve were involved. Students from the New School contributed a watershed map. The Kennebunkport Historical Society made a display of the history of the Kennebunk River. They felt that a watershed approach was beneficial because habits and problems were common throughout the watershed.
Boaters started complaining about lack of pump out stations. They started working on developing a public pump out facility in the Kennebunk River. They now have a pump out station online 2009.
Eventually water samples began to improve in quality. The town began to implement small improvements. Including bathrooms at the beach, and dog cleanup stations.
Mike Horn, Chair, Ogunquit Conservation Commission
Ogunquit has a high percentage of elderly residents, but there is large support for the work of the Conservation Commission. Ogunquit approved a yearly budget of $25,000 for land acquisition, which has now added up to enough to move forward on some projects.
Mike related a story:
Ogunquit Beach has a dune system that is vital to the estuary and the beach. It supports many species of fish and birds, as well as rare plants. The dune had been degraded by pedestrian traffic, ave 30,000 visitors/weekend day and 10,000 visitors/weekday respectively. Traffic in the dunes caused compaction and erosion and damaged plant life.
In 1971 the dune was breached by a storm, but the Town repaired it. In 1974 the York County Soil and Water Conservation District and the Department of Agriculture and the town began reconstruction and restoration of the dunes. In subsequent years the agencies passed maintenance responsibilities to the Town.
In 2005, a storm demolished fencing which had been put in place by the Town. A large storm in 2007 caused damage to most of the remaining structure on the ocean side. FEMA, US FWS, and the town of Ogunquit have come into conflict over dune management. USFWS recommended that FEMA withhold funds to reconstruct the snow fencing because of perceived detrimental effects to plover nesting. Despite studies by Maine Inland Fisheries and Wildlife that show no correlation between plover nesting and the presence of fences.
After 2.5 years of negotiation, the Town and the USFWS reached an agreement on reconstruction of the fence. The fence not only deters pedestrian traffic but also captures sand and promotes dune growth. Mike shared a map of the river, dune and estuary system in Ogunquit.
The dunes are a result of building in the 70's and the builders lacked the knowledge of dune construction and built a dike with gravel, which doesn't support the same community of plants and animals as a natural sand dune.
The lesson learned is that these challenges must be met head on despite challenges in dealing with government bureaucracy.
Mike brought with him a history mapping of the Ogunquit beach and dunes produced by Steve Dickson.
Kristen Grant, Extension Associate, Maine Sea Grant and University of Maine Cooperative Extension
Kristen presented an overview and demonstration of the newly released “Accessing the Maine Coast” web site http://www.accessingthemainecoast.com/. The website contains information to help waterfront users, coastal communities, and land owners address issues related to coastal access. The intent of this website is to offer communities specific tools that address their specific needs.
Access is a key theme in communities all over coastal Maine. Maine is distinct from 45 other states in that the intertidal zone is generally deeded to the abutting property owner, rather than held by the State, as is true in most states. The website is a resource that can benefit Maine communities coast-wide. The hope is that with these resources communities can work out there issues cooperatively and avoid litigation.
Maine Sea Grant, UM Cooperative Extension and other partners held workshops between 2003 and 2006 to identify needs. There was a need for legal information related to access. Sea Grant received significant funding to conduct legal research. University of Maine Law School student developed a 40 page memo on tools available for managing access. A web site was determined to be the best format for presenting this information.
In the end the research showed that the 3 things you need to determine are: your access needs; your existing rights; what tool best suits your need. Tools include: buying access, contracting for access, regulating for access, and taxing to control access.
They decided to help people find the tools they needed by asking them to identify themselves as one of 3 stakeholder groups – private waterfront land owners, government or public interest entities, and waterfront user . In addition there are tabs to jump to tools and laws, as well as FAQ's. The information is presented based on the most pertinent questions for each stakeholder type. Different tools are discussed in detail including tax policy, contracting, acquisition, planning, etc. Major headings are pulled out and highlighted. Terms are linked in the Glossary. There is also a bibliography that highlights useful resources. The FAQ section is continuously updated and provides an interactive feature for users of the site.
Planning for Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Infrastructure
Moderator Zack Steele- Wells National Estuarine Research Reserve
Presenters Paul Kirshen –Battelle Memorial Institute
Samuel Merrill – University of Southern Maine
-Apply Science to make better decisions
Old Orchard Beach, Maine Case Study
Reactive-wait until impacts have occurred
Proactive-take actions before major impacts have occurred, shown to be more cost effective
Q: Is this modeling only applied to Old Orchard Beach
A: Work in the process
Q: Explain Co-Benefits further
Co-Benefits are actions that not only help adaptation but also have non climate related benefits. There are also no regrets actions which are beneficial today and tomorrow regardless of changes in sea level.
Q: Everything seems too uncertain. Put money somewhere else.
A: Climate Change I don’t do that research. Researchers say 50-150, I believe them.
Q: Are the specific actions up to the communities?
A: Believes will be driven by communities, money from government
Q: Meeting in Italy 80% reduction of 1990 by 2050, 2 C degree, where do these numbers come from?
A: Scientists have said these are the numbers that can not be exceeded without dire effects.
Q: Communication, tide gates won’t be allowed in Maine
A: Adaptation strategies are not based on current political regulations
Q: Isostatic rebound, some land is going up does the modeling take this into consideration?
A: Rebound is occurring in Canada; In Maine we are going down.
R: Local Level, so how we gonna pay? Federal money is not there for adaptation or mitigation, replacement structures to move is not supported financially
R: Tax impact calculator, Mill Rate
R: Whose costs are they going to be
R: Real damage, 3-D maps
R: Look at political and social effects
R: Full cost accounting
R: 100 year flood that happens in 5 years? How is that possible, what is it?
R: Adaptation, level of confidence, jetties and breakwaters, I thought they were already proven as not working
R: 3-D something that we recognize. You don’t speak English, and you don’t draw things that we see, things will make sense, dollars are dollars, I understand it but could not communicate what I learned today,
R: Relate to historic storms like the Patriots day storm, so we know what we are dealing with
Presenters Paul Kirshen –Battelle Memorial Institute
Samuel Merrill – University of Southern Maine
-Apply Science to make better decisions
Old Orchard Beach, Maine Case Study
- www.oobmaine.com
- Businesses at rise; 1/3 at risk during hurricane season
- Mitigation and Adaptation
- Payback time
- IEC sea level rise modeling company
- Storm surge and sea level rise
- Property values
- Can look into the future at probability of damage
- Graphs showing investment
- How to share the information?
- Outreach vehicle
- Impacts of Climate Change
- Infrastructure
- Ecosystems
- Environmental Justice Communities
- Scenario-Based Risk Assessment Approach to Adaptation Planning
- Example Application to Coastal Storm Surge Planning
- 2007 estimation
- 50cm-140cm by 2100
- Greenhouse gases change
- Uncertainty in program
- Local effects
- Changes in frequency of current “100 year storm” events,
- Ecosystem services
- Ex. Loss of wetland, won’t be able to absorb storm surge
- Lower income communities will see higher damages vice versa (not publishable information)
Reactive-wait until impacts have occurred
Proactive-take actions before major impacts have occurred, shown to be more cost effective
- Do nothing
- Protection-attempts to manage the hazard with hard structures such as seawalls and groins or soft measures such as beach nourishment
- Accommodation elevate buildings or retreat
- Keep natural environment healthy
- Need to consider climate change in planning now so proper adaptation can occur
- When to invest in adaptation?
- Other driving forces on infrastructure
- Unknown future GHG levels and mitigation acheived
- Stakeholder Involvement at all levels is Critical
- Interactions with other infrastructure sectors and the environment
- Use Principles of Integrated Coastal Zone Management
- Adaptive Management
- Life Cycle Analysis
- Use of Co-Benefits
- Precautionary Approach
- Plan for the worst
- Take action now
- Big in Europe
- Robust Solutions (work over range of outcomes)
- Risk-based Scenario Analysis
- Consideration of system performance over all conditions, moves away from traditional design event approach
- Explicitly recognizes that uncertainty (lack of quantified probabilities) exists in the process and must be addressed through scenario analysis
- Relies upon two way communication with stakeholders-adaptation is local action
- “Safe to Fail, not Fail Safe”
- Most cost effective way of planning
- Determine areas vulnerable to SLR permanent flooding and storm surge flooding for 2100 SLR2 of 50, 100, 150 cm
- Determine Expected Value of Damage to Building so 2010 and 2100 under SLR scenarios
- Use above values to estimated expected values of impacts 2010 or 2100
- Discuss adaptation action with OOB and Southern Maine RPC
- Dune construction and beach nourishment
- More tide gates
- Reconfigure existing beach access
- Increase required building elevation above the flood plane
- Regional approach
- Refine method with OOB including benefits and costs of various adaptation options under various scenarios
Q: Is this modeling only applied to Old Orchard Beach
A: Work in the process
Q: Explain Co-Benefits further
Co-Benefits are actions that not only help adaptation but also have non climate related benefits. There are also no regrets actions which are beneficial today and tomorrow regardless of changes in sea level.
Q: Everything seems too uncertain. Put money somewhere else.
A: Climate Change I don’t do that research. Researchers say 50-150, I believe them.
Q: Are the specific actions up to the communities?
A: Believes will be driven by communities, money from government
Q: Meeting in Italy 80% reduction of 1990 by 2050, 2 C degree, where do these numbers come from?
A: Scientists have said these are the numbers that can not be exceeded without dire effects.
Q: Communication, tide gates won’t be allowed in Maine
A: Adaptation strategies are not based on current political regulations
Q: Isostatic rebound, some land is going up does the modeling take this into consideration?
A: Rebound is occurring in Canada; In Maine we are going down.
R: Local Level, so how we gonna pay? Federal money is not there for adaptation or mitigation, replacement structures to move is not supported financially
R: Tax impact calculator, Mill Rate
R: Whose costs are they going to be
R: Real damage, 3-D maps
R: Look at political and social effects
R: Full cost accounting
R: 100 year flood that happens in 5 years? How is that possible, what is it?
R: Adaptation, level of confidence, jetties and breakwaters, I thought they were already proven as not working
R: 3-D something that we recognize. You don’t speak English, and you don’t draw things that we see, things will make sense, dollars are dollars, I understand it but could not communicate what I learned today,
R: Relate to historic storms like the Patriots day storm, so we know what we are dealing with
How Do State and Federal Laws Affect My Coastal Property?
Sue Baker, Maine Floodplain Management Program
Dawn Hallowell, Department of Environmental Protection
Dawn Hallowell: Eager to answer questions/concerns of property owners
Sea Level Rise & Coastal Sand Dune Rules
Revised in 2008 and 2006; incorporated a 2 ft rise in sea levels over the next 100 years
Focus on how sea level rise plays into coastal sand dune rules
CSDR regulate on csd systems; restrict size, placement of buildings
Why 2 feet? → best data they had at time of revisions; widely agreed upon by MGS that 2 ft rise in sea level for this area is reasonable; decrease from 3 ft in 1996 to 2ft in 2008
Factor for reconstruction projects, additions, new buildings in frontal dunes
4 Standards
Q: Are the CSDR up for review every 5 years and are they up for review soon? A: Not to her knowledge, if you would like to see changes in the rules you need to contact your representative
Sue Baker: National Flood Insurance Program
NFIP – 3 Parts: Flood Mapping, Regulations and Insurance
Flooding a problem in Maine? – YES, February ’78 and April ’87, October 1991 ‘Halloween Storm’
1968 – Congress established NFIP – distributed responsibility of floodplain management to all levels of government
Resulting effects – better building codes, acquired and relocated buildings from era’s without standards, retrofitting buildings, levees/sea walls and other systems to protect homeowners
Quid Pro Quo – mutual agreement between Feds and Community; community will regulate development in mapped floodplains; in return anyone in a community can purchase flood insurance
Mapping – FEMA developed and mapped flood hazard data; insurance and lenders use maps
FEMA maps ‘base flood’ (100 year flood)
30-Year Mortgage – for house located in Special Flood Hazard Area 26% chance you will have a flood; SFHA is darkly shaded area on a floodplain map that has 1% chance of being flooded in any given year
Base Flood Elevation (BFE) – elevation water’s expected to reach in 1% chance flood
Flood Insurance
Floodplain deals with elevation where DEP deals with setbacks (pushing structure back from area of risk); DEP and grandfathering – if you’ve had fire/need to replace you have 1 or 2 years to rebuild, if building is in floodplain your building isn’t grandfathered in, it’s considered as ‘new construction’
Questions
How does FEMA decide on 50% increase in value? FEMA can use market value but that means different things for different communities; rates are increased for that building’s owner, not for the community at large
Limit of $250,000 for any residential building on structures in a floodplain
Are there communities opposed to the NFIP? Yes, about 40 statewide. They’re penalized indirectly (loans for property in flood zones harder to acquire in towns who don’t adopt NFIP)
Is there a minimum amount of insurance you have to buy? No, you buy what you need up to $250,000
If your property is damaged, does flood insurance cover all damage up to the $250,000 max depending on how much you bought? Yes, if you purchased say $250,000 and receive $100,000 in damage, you get $100,000 of coverage
Would a house that was condemned due to property damage (collapsed land due to flooding) receive coverage under flood insurance? No because that house was damaged indirectly by flooding
Dawn Hallowell, Department of Environmental Protection
Dawn Hallowell: Eager to answer questions/concerns of property owners
Sea Level Rise & Coastal Sand Dune Rules
Revised in 2008 and 2006; incorporated a 2 ft rise in sea levels over the next 100 years
Focus on how sea level rise plays into coastal sand dune rules
CSDR regulate on csd systems; restrict size, placement of buildings
Why 2 feet? → best data they had at time of revisions; widely agreed upon by MGS that 2 ft rise in sea level for this area is reasonable; decrease from 3 ft in 1996 to 2ft in 2008
Factor for reconstruction projects, additions, new buildings in frontal dunes
4 Standards
- Shoreline changes - if property may erode in 100 years, project may be put on hold
- Mitigation and enhancement – project may not be approved if it interferes with movement of sand/water (mitigation – dune construction, moving structures landward, planting native beach vegetation) Example – vertical edition project in Scarborough, proposed that a dune be built in order to provide protection to properties
- Sand and water movement – reconstructing frontal house, in an eroding area; standard that requires that structure be elevated to account for 2 ft of sea level rise plus 1 ft buffer; must allow for movement of wind, water or sand
- Unstable back dune areas – erosion hazard areas (any area that can be expected to become a coastal wetland area in the next 100 years), new/reconstructed buildings must meet foundation standard
- Cobble-trapping fences are proposed to be added to the PBR in 2010 (relative confusion over what a ‘cobble-trapping fence’ is due to it being new legislation, discussion between homeowners on what it is/how it could be utilized on their property)
Q: Are the CSDR up for review every 5 years and are they up for review soon? A: Not to her knowledge, if you would like to see changes in the rules you need to contact your representative
Sue Baker: National Flood Insurance Program
NFIP – 3 Parts: Flood Mapping, Regulations and Insurance
Flooding a problem in Maine? – YES, February ’78 and April ’87, October 1991 ‘Halloween Storm’
1968 – Congress established NFIP – distributed responsibility of floodplain management to all levels of government
Resulting effects – better building codes, acquired and relocated buildings from era’s without standards, retrofitting buildings, levees/sea walls and other systems to protect homeowners
Quid Pro Quo – mutual agreement between Feds and Community; community will regulate development in mapped floodplains; in return anyone in a community can purchase flood insurance
Mapping – FEMA developed and mapped flood hazard data; insurance and lenders use maps
FEMA maps ‘base flood’ (100 year flood)
30-Year Mortgage – for house located in Special Flood Hazard Area 26% chance you will have a flood; SFHA is darkly shaded area on a floodplain map that has 1% chance of being flooded in any given year
Base Flood Elevation (BFE) – elevation water’s expected to reach in 1% chance flood
- Zone A – no BFE’s determined
- Zone AE, A1-30 – BFE’s determined
- Zone AH – flood depths of 1 to 3 feet (areas of ponding)
- Zone AO – flood depths of 1 to 3 feet (areas of movement)
- Zone V1- flood depths of 1 to 3 feet with wind/tide effects (coastal velocity zones)
- Why require local permits for developments? – balance needs of envi and pressure of development, protect natural and beneficial functions of floodplains, protect life and property, goal is to break cycle of having flooding – damage - repair
- Minor Improvements – normal maintenance, non-structural: adequately anchored, flood damage resistant materials, construction methods and practices to minimize flood damage
- New Construction/substantial improvements; 50% of more improvement in the value of the building only; lowest floor must be elevated to 1’ above the base flood elevation; 2’ in some coastal communities; there are different methods for different zones of flooding to elevate a structure
Flood Insurance
- Floodplain construction and its effects on flood insurance rates: build it right and insurance premiums will be affordable; build it wrong and premiums will be expensive
- Mandatory purchase requirement: if you’re taking a loan from a federally backed lending institution
Floodplain deals with elevation where DEP deals with setbacks (pushing structure back from area of risk); DEP and grandfathering – if you’ve had fire/need to replace you have 1 or 2 years to rebuild, if building is in floodplain your building isn’t grandfathered in, it’s considered as ‘new construction’
Questions
How does FEMA decide on 50% increase in value? FEMA can use market value but that means different things for different communities; rates are increased for that building’s owner, not for the community at large
Limit of $250,000 for any residential building on structures in a floodplain
Are there communities opposed to the NFIP? Yes, about 40 statewide. They’re penalized indirectly (loans for property in flood zones harder to acquire in towns who don’t adopt NFIP)
Is there a minimum amount of insurance you have to buy? No, you buy what you need up to $250,000
If your property is damaged, does flood insurance cover all damage up to the $250,000 max depending on how much you bought? Yes, if you purchased say $250,000 and receive $100,000 in damage, you get $100,000 of coverage
Would a house that was condemned due to property damage (collapsed land due to flooding) receive coverage under flood insurance? No because that house was damaged indirectly by flooding
Adaptations to Create Resilient Beach Communities
Jon Lockman of the Southern Maine Regional Planning Commission will moderate a panel that includes: Bob Hamblen, Saco's City Planner; Greg Tansley, Biddeford's City Planner; and, Gary Lamb, the Director of Planning and Community Development of Old Orchard Beach.
This presentation is to help us "get real" about what towns can do to create resilient beach communities.
Jon, or JT, introduces the Coastal Hazard Resiliency Tool Project, an multi-year effort funded by the Maine Coastal Program. He's involved 6 communities so far. The program helps encourage communication between town planners in regards to sea level rise and resiliency issues. JT is getting tired of just talking about the problem and wants to start doing something about it. He cleaned out his library recently and found a whole shelf of material in this very issue...from 1979.
JT presents some examples of Municipal Adaption Action, including a Sea Level Adaptation Working Group in Saco Bay that would help: comment on federal or state beach nourishment/erosion control; and, help identify infrastructure vulnerable to storms and sea level rise such as culverts, storm drains, bridges or tide gates, etc. JT talks about the duties of the SLWAG, which could include recommending the standardizing of floodplain management standards and building code interpretations to rise higher above 100 year storm events. They could also recommend standards affecting shorelands adjacent to Saco Bay. These recommendations may either be binding or non-binding.
In talking about improving shoreland zoning, JT puts up a map of a coastal town (I believe it's Old Orchard Beach) which shows the highest high-tide levels rising over the past few years. The effect of increasing high tides is that the shoreland zoning buffer of 250 feet must be redrawn further inland. On the marsh side, the buffer is also squeezing in. The overall effect is that some properties that have never been subject to shoreland zoning restricting may now be.
JT now presents some questions to the gathered panel. Each presenter has 5 minutes.
First, do elected officials and citizens in your community believe that actions need to be taken to adapt to sea level rise?
Gary Lamb: Old Orchard Beach is a small town, when you don't count tourists. The town is very concerned about sea level rise. The citizens need to be better educated. Poor building placement is a problem, sometimes it's human activity from long ago.
What are the obstacles going forward? Quite simply, time and money. OOB has only one person who could do this, and raising money is very hard, especially in this climate.
OOB, he says, does not slope downward. There used to be a natural outlet into the sea from the saltwater marsh, but since humans have come in, there has been a trench dug that takes water out to Route 9. The trench could be re-dug for $4 million, but hasn't yet. The trench has thus prevented stormwater from escaping the marsh into the ocean, and will soon require OOB to start pumping stormwater out. This will have to happen in the next couple years, and they won't really have a choice in the matter. Gary points out several areas where stormwater pool up, creating big problems, now and in the future.
What construction projects considered in OOB? Creating wastewater and stormwater stations. He'd like to remove some railroad tracks (temporarily) in order to eventually restore flow to the ocean. OOB is a town-owned beach, which is unusual, and will help in future efforts to create access to the beach for stormwater.
What's the top priority? Safety. In the event of a big storm, you can't have people in trouble.
Bob Hamblen: In regards to how concerned Saco's officials are about sea level rise: they're not very concerned. To his knowledge, the topic just hasn't come up. Erosion is an issue, he knows, but sea level rise is a separate issue. Camp Ellis has had a long history of dealing with erosion, but sea level rise is something else. While the city may be aware of the issue, they're not doing much to tackle it.
What are the obstacles? Lack of knowledge. A greater understanding of the issue and how Saco could be affected will all help.
Are there construction projects being considered? There are certainly things that could be done, especially after the Patriot's Day Storm a couple years ago. In terms of adaptations, though, there isn't anything particular being considered.
Camp Ellis' shoreline position has been changing a lot over the past century. There are already a whole bunch of neighborhood that is underwater, as many as 38 structures.
Regulatory Actions? He talked about trying to raise the 100 year storm structure heights to a foot higher than they are now, and some people were receptive, but the City of Saco itself was not very receptive.
Greg Tansley: JT's questions were very interesting. Greg was hoping that he could just point to other speakers and copy their answers. In response to the question of whether citizens are aware of the problem, he thinks they are aware of the issue, but not sure that the citizens are associating sea level rise with their backdoors. Are these citizens looking at certain rocks and saying "wow that never used to be underwater!" Greg isn't sure if people are making that connection.
What are the obstacles in the way? It's hard for people to think sometimes when these problems are 90 years down the road. The second obstacle is that the term "potential" is being used. When "potential" is used, and sea level changes are competing with actual, real needs for schools and roads...urgent, current needs will win. Another obstacle is that many don't want new regulations to deal with a potential problem 90 years from now.
Greg now shows a slide of Biddeford Pool showing what would happen if there was a 2 foot sea level rise during the highest tide. Many areas would now be underwater, the most significant of which is the intersection with Bridge Road. Greg said he brought this up to town engineers, and some concern was raised. A problem at this intersection would essentially create an island out of Biddeford. There may not be money to do anything. But if they had money, they would want to raise the road with fill (that would affect wildlife areas and existing homes). They could built levees...but we all remember New Orleans. We could also just do nothing.
Regulatory actions, like in Bob's case, have not really been discussed.
Question: What is your position, JT?
JT: I work for the Southern Maine Regional Planning Commission. We're independent, but we receive grants from the state. 90% of his work is paid for through consulting from fee-for-services.
Question: Would the townships be interested in partnering together, maybe with the state, to apply for federal grant funds?
JT: Conceptually, yes, but we haven't even gotten it together to get a regional group together to figure out what we could apply for. Applying for federal grants is far down the road.
Question: Does the opportunity for a grant inspire towns to get together?
JT: Yes, the Coastal Program and SPO encourage them to get the working group going in order to see what's out there.
Question: What level of federal grant program would it take to get towns interested?
Gary: The Scarborough Marsh fix would take 6 million dollars. There are other things that may need to happen first.
Bob: It wouldn't take a lot of money to get Saco to the table. They recognize that they're a low-lying community.
This presentation is to help us "get real" about what towns can do to create resilient beach communities.
Jon, or JT, introduces the Coastal Hazard Resiliency Tool Project, an multi-year effort funded by the Maine Coastal Program. He's involved 6 communities so far. The program helps encourage communication between town planners in regards to sea level rise and resiliency issues. JT is getting tired of just talking about the problem and wants to start doing something about it. He cleaned out his library recently and found a whole shelf of material in this very issue...from 1979.
JT presents some examples of Municipal Adaption Action, including a Sea Level Adaptation Working Group in Saco Bay that would help: comment on federal or state beach nourishment/erosion control; and, help identify infrastructure vulnerable to storms and sea level rise such as culverts, storm drains, bridges or tide gates, etc. JT talks about the duties of the SLWAG, which could include recommending the standardizing of floodplain management standards and building code interpretations to rise higher above 100 year storm events. They could also recommend standards affecting shorelands adjacent to Saco Bay. These recommendations may either be binding or non-binding.
In talking about improving shoreland zoning, JT puts up a map of a coastal town (I believe it's Old Orchard Beach) which shows the highest high-tide levels rising over the past few years. The effect of increasing high tides is that the shoreland zoning buffer of 250 feet must be redrawn further inland. On the marsh side, the buffer is also squeezing in. The overall effect is that some properties that have never been subject to shoreland zoning restricting may now be.
JT now presents some questions to the gathered panel. Each presenter has 5 minutes.
First, do elected officials and citizens in your community believe that actions need to be taken to adapt to sea level rise?
Gary Lamb: Old Orchard Beach is a small town, when you don't count tourists. The town is very concerned about sea level rise. The citizens need to be better educated. Poor building placement is a problem, sometimes it's human activity from long ago.
What are the obstacles going forward? Quite simply, time and money. OOB has only one person who could do this, and raising money is very hard, especially in this climate.
OOB, he says, does not slope downward. There used to be a natural outlet into the sea from the saltwater marsh, but since humans have come in, there has been a trench dug that takes water out to Route 9. The trench could be re-dug for $4 million, but hasn't yet. The trench has thus prevented stormwater from escaping the marsh into the ocean, and will soon require OOB to start pumping stormwater out. This will have to happen in the next couple years, and they won't really have a choice in the matter. Gary points out several areas where stormwater pool up, creating big problems, now and in the future.
What construction projects considered in OOB? Creating wastewater and stormwater stations. He'd like to remove some railroad tracks (temporarily) in order to eventually restore flow to the ocean. OOB is a town-owned beach, which is unusual, and will help in future efforts to create access to the beach for stormwater.
What's the top priority? Safety. In the event of a big storm, you can't have people in trouble.
Bob Hamblen: In regards to how concerned Saco's officials are about sea level rise: they're not very concerned. To his knowledge, the topic just hasn't come up. Erosion is an issue, he knows, but sea level rise is a separate issue. Camp Ellis has had a long history of dealing with erosion, but sea level rise is something else. While the city may be aware of the issue, they're not doing much to tackle it.
What are the obstacles? Lack of knowledge. A greater understanding of the issue and how Saco could be affected will all help.
Are there construction projects being considered? There are certainly things that could be done, especially after the Patriot's Day Storm a couple years ago. In terms of adaptations, though, there isn't anything particular being considered.
Camp Ellis' shoreline position has been changing a lot over the past century. There are already a whole bunch of neighborhood that is underwater, as many as 38 structures.
Regulatory Actions? He talked about trying to raise the 100 year storm structure heights to a foot higher than they are now, and some people were receptive, but the City of Saco itself was not very receptive.
Greg Tansley: JT's questions were very interesting. Greg was hoping that he could just point to other speakers and copy their answers. In response to the question of whether citizens are aware of the problem, he thinks they are aware of the issue, but not sure that the citizens are associating sea level rise with their backdoors. Are these citizens looking at certain rocks and saying "wow that never used to be underwater!" Greg isn't sure if people are making that connection.
What are the obstacles in the way? It's hard for people to think sometimes when these problems are 90 years down the road. The second obstacle is that the term "potential" is being used. When "potential" is used, and sea level changes are competing with actual, real needs for schools and roads...urgent, current needs will win. Another obstacle is that many don't want new regulations to deal with a potential problem 90 years from now.
Greg now shows a slide of Biddeford Pool showing what would happen if there was a 2 foot sea level rise during the highest tide. Many areas would now be underwater, the most significant of which is the intersection with Bridge Road. Greg said he brought this up to town engineers, and some concern was raised. A problem at this intersection would essentially create an island out of Biddeford. There may not be money to do anything. But if they had money, they would want to raise the road with fill (that would affect wildlife areas and existing homes). They could built levees...but we all remember New Orleans. We could also just do nothing.
Regulatory actions, like in Bob's case, have not really been discussed.
Question: What is your position, JT?
JT: I work for the Southern Maine Regional Planning Commission. We're independent, but we receive grants from the state. 90% of his work is paid for through consulting from fee-for-services.
Question: Would the townships be interested in partnering together, maybe with the state, to apply for federal grant funds?
JT: Conceptually, yes, but we haven't even gotten it together to get a regional group together to figure out what we could apply for. Applying for federal grants is far down the road.
Question: Does the opportunity for a grant inspire towns to get together?
JT: Yes, the Coastal Program and SPO encourage them to get the working group going in order to see what's out there.
Question: What level of federal grant program would it take to get towns interested?
Gary: The Scarborough Marsh fix would take 6 million dollars. There are other things that may need to happen first.
Bob: It wouldn't take a lot of money to get Saco to the table. They recognize that they're a low-lying community.
Parting Thoughts
Peter Slovinsky hopes that we will leave today having learned something more about Maine beaches, and that we have spent our time well. He rests with a nice quote from Rachel Carson. Thanks for attending the 2009 Maine Beaches Conference, everyone!
Thursday, July 9, 2009
Building Community Resiliency Walking Tour
Building Community Resiliency – A Walking Tour with Stephen Dickson, Maine Geological Survey
Notes
• Coastal Resiliency: How the coastline bounces back after storm or other disaster
Geological resiliency is how the natural beach-dune system responds to storms and how quickly it can return to pre-storm conditions
Resiliency of development is how the built environment survives storms and how soon economic activity can resume
• Sand Budget – ebb and flow of sand is like a financial budget
Dunes are like the savings account in a bank
Beach is a checking account – more active day-to-day
• Maine’s Coastal Sand Dune Rules build resiliency in both the natural environment and in the developed areas
• Willard Beach is a pocket beach between rocky headlands with sand from glacial sediments
• Dunes have been restored by people through beach management plans created by the Willard Beach Neighborhood Association and additional city efforts
American beach grass traps sand. Planted with simple broomstick method. Planted late winter (March, early April) while dormant. Volunteers throw dried seaweed onto dunes as fertilizer. Plants only flower an spread when significantly covered in sand. There will naturally be non-vegetated patches that are okay. Sand or rope fence lines are placed seaward of existing dunes to allow seaward growth of beach grass through the summer.
Access paths are made curved so they do not create a direct path for storm surges to go through the dunes and flood neighborhoods and roads
Snack shack in direct danger of flooding and waves; play area creates break in dunes, water can go straight to the snack shack as well as around to the back side of the dunes and road.
Punt storage is limited to certain areas so launching and storage in dunes doesn’t kill too much beach grass
o Patriots’ Day Storm in 2007
Took 30-40 feet of dune out but no homes were damaged
Both the beach and dune were able to recover extremely well with the help of the local community setting fences, planting beach grass, fertilizing with seaweed
In two years more than 20 feet of dune has been restored
The most damaging storms come at spring high tide that allows extra flooding and wave action high into the dunes – as was the case in 2007
o 1930s to 1950s Willard Beach had no dunes
The dune and beach were a “working waterfront”
Properties were much more vulnerable to storm flooding and erosion than they are now
• FEMA flood insurance will pay up to $250,000 to help rebuild structures damaged by storms. Many of these structures are worth more than that so a protective dune can reduce personal economic losses from storms.
• Maine’s Coastal Sand Dune Rules have storm-damaged structures rebuilt higher, farther landward if possible, and may require dune restoration seaward of a building with the intent of not having repeated damage to the environment or buildings.
Notes
• Coastal Resiliency: How the coastline bounces back after storm or other disaster
Geological resiliency is how the natural beach-dune system responds to storms and how quickly it can return to pre-storm conditions
Resiliency of development is how the built environment survives storms and how soon economic activity can resume
• Sand Budget – ebb and flow of sand is like a financial budget
Dunes are like the savings account in a bank
Beach is a checking account – more active day-to-day
• Maine’s Coastal Sand Dune Rules build resiliency in both the natural environment and in the developed areas
• Willard Beach is a pocket beach between rocky headlands with sand from glacial sediments
• Dunes have been restored by people through beach management plans created by the Willard Beach Neighborhood Association and additional city efforts
American beach grass traps sand. Planted with simple broomstick method. Planted late winter (March, early April) while dormant. Volunteers throw dried seaweed onto dunes as fertilizer. Plants only flower an spread when significantly covered in sand. There will naturally be non-vegetated patches that are okay. Sand or rope fence lines are placed seaward of existing dunes to allow seaward growth of beach grass through the summer.
Access paths are made curved so they do not create a direct path for storm surges to go through the dunes and flood neighborhoods and roads
Snack shack in direct danger of flooding and waves; play area creates break in dunes, water can go straight to the snack shack as well as around to the back side of the dunes and road.
Punt storage is limited to certain areas so launching and storage in dunes doesn’t kill too much beach grass
o Patriots’ Day Storm in 2007
Took 30-40 feet of dune out but no homes were damaged
Both the beach and dune were able to recover extremely well with the help of the local community setting fences, planting beach grass, fertilizing with seaweed
In two years more than 20 feet of dune has been restored
The most damaging storms come at spring high tide that allows extra flooding and wave action high into the dunes – as was the case in 2007
o 1930s to 1950s Willard Beach had no dunes
The dune and beach were a “working waterfront”
Properties were much more vulnerable to storm flooding and erosion than they are now
• FEMA flood insurance will pay up to $250,000 to help rebuild structures damaged by storms. Many of these structures are worth more than that so a protective dune can reduce personal economic losses from storms.
• Maine’s Coastal Sand Dune Rules have storm-damaged structures rebuilt higher, farther landward if possible, and may require dune restoration seaward of a building with the intent of not having repeated damage to the environment or buildings.
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